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Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.92.2004.tde-05042022-104830
Document
Author
Full name
Erlei Rocha Lima
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2004
Supervisor
Committee
Schirmer, Pedro Paulo Serpa (President)
Costa, Oswaldo Luiz do Valle
Niederhauser, Beat Matthias
Title in Portuguese
Alocação dinâmica em carteiras expostas ao risco de créditos e risco de mercado
Keywords in Portuguese
Administração de risco
Crédito
Investimentos
Abstract in Portuguese
Um modelo de alocação estratégica intertemporal é proposto para o problema de investidores que desejam maximizar sua utilidade de riqueza. Na economia na qual os investidores em que irão realizar suas decisões, não há oportunidades de arbitragens enfie os ativos, e suas opções de investimento são: ações, títulos de renda fixa com risco de taxa de juros e títulos de renda fixa com risco de taxa de juros e com risco de crédito. O modelo proposto é inovador por considerar o risco de crédito, fator que geralmente não é levado em conta em problemas de alocação intertemporal. A solução do problema foi obtida por meio de programação dinâmica e os pesos de alocação ótima ao longo do tempo são fornecidos por expressões em forma fechada, que permite sua aplicação em simulações numéricas computacional de forma direta. Para modelar o risco de crédito utilizou-se a abordagem dos modelos de intensidade e o uso de um parâmetro exógeno que capta o valor a ser recuperado em caso de default é considerado nas decisões de investimento. Resultados de ensaios numéricos são apresentados, com o intuito de mostrar a sensibilidade do modelo em função da variação dos parâmetros de entrada do modelo
Title in English
Dynamic allocation in portfolios exposed to credit risk and market risk
Keywords in English
Credit
Investments
Risk Management
Abstract in English
An intertemporal strategic allocation model is proposed for the problem of investors who want to maximize their wealth utility. In the economy in which investors will make their decisions, there are no opportunities for arbitrage between assets, and their investment options are: equities, fixed-income securities with interest rate risk and fixed-income securities with interest rate risk and with credit risk. The proposed model is innovative because it considers credit risk, a factor that is generally not taken into account in intertemporal allocation problems. The solution of the problem was obtained through dynamic programming and the optimal allocation weights over time are provided by expressions in closed form, which allows its application in numerical computational simulations in a direct way. In order to model credit risk, the intensity models approach was used and the use of an exogenous parameter that captures the amount to be recovered in the event of default is considered in investment decisions. Numerical test results are presented, in order to show the model's sensitivity as a function of the variation of the model's input parameters
 
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Publishing Date
2022-04-05
 
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