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Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.96.2020.tde-31082020-154431
Document
Author
Full name
Eduardo Teixeira de Carvalho Silva
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
Ribeirão Preto, 2020
Supervisor
Committee
Ferreira, Alex Luiz (President)
Gomes, Fabio Augusto Reis
Meurer, Roberto
Perobelli, Fernando Salgueiro
Title in English
Risk sharing in the Brazilian regional case
Keywords in English
Fiscal federalism
Regional macroeconomics
Risk sharing
Abstract in English
The goal of this dissertation is to evaluate in which degree and how the consumption risk sharing is achieved among Brazilian states. The main result of consumption risk sharing theory entails that if all the consumption risk sharing opportunities are explored, consumption on regional and aggregate levels should be perfect correlated and individual income variations have no effect on consumption. At first place, this study sought to analyze in which degree the Brazilian states consumption is related to the country level. The results for the regional case are then compared to the international, in order to examine if the reduced number of barriers within the states encourages risk sharing, as is pointed at empirical literature on the area. Lastly, this research explores what is the role of fiscal federalism as a stabilizer, analyzing from taxes and transfers data in which degree the state income volatility is reduced by the federal government. The results point to an elevated degree of consumption integration among the Brazilian states, while the country presents a lower degree of risk sharing with its neighbor countries. Besides that, the results suggests that fiscal federalism acts as a stabilizer of state income, reducing around 13% the effect of idiosyncratic shocks.
Title in Portuguese
Compartilhamento de risco no caso regional brasileiro
Keywords in Portuguese
Compartilhamento de risco
Federalismo fiscal
Macroeconomia regional
Abstract in Portuguese
Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar em que grau e como se dá o compartilhamento de risco de consumo entre os estados brasileiros. O principal resultado da teoria de compartilhamento de risco de consumo prega, que quando todas as oportunidades de compartilhamento de risco são exploradas, o consumo de cada região deve ser perfeitamente correlacionado com o consumo agregado, de modo que choques regionais não afetam o nível de consumo. Inicialmente, este estudo buscou analisar em que grau o consumo dos estados brasileiros está relacionado com o nível do país. Os resultados para o nível regional foram então comparados ao nível internacional, de forma a analisar se o menor número de barreiras dentro do país incentiva o compartilhamento de risco, conforme é apontado pela literatura empírica. Por fim, este trabalho explora qual é o papel do federalismo fiscal como estabilizador, analisando, a partir de dados de tributação e repasses, em que grau o governo federal reduz a volatilidade da renda dos estados. Os resultados apontaram para um elevado grau de integração entre o consumo dos estados brasileiros, enquanto o país apresenta um mais baixo nível de compartilhamento de risco com seus países vizinhos. Além disso, os resultados sugerem que o federalismo fiscal atua como estabilizador da renda dos estados, reduzindo por volta de 13% dos choques idiossincráticos.
 
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Publishing Date
2020-11-19
 
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