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Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.96.2022.tde-28072022-140218
Document
Author
Full name
Rafael Santos Melo
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
Ribeirão Preto, 2022
Supervisor
Committee
Gomes, Fabio Augusto Reis (President)
Mendonça, Helder Ferreira de
Silva, Cleomar Gomes da
Title in Portuguese
Estimação da credibilidade da política monetária no Brasil
Keywords in Portuguese
Banco Central do Brasil
Credibilidade
Regime de metas de inflação
Abstract in Portuguese
No contexto das metas de inflação, a credibilidade da política monetária é o nível de confiança que os agentes depositam na exequibilidade de uma política anunciada pelo governo. Não podendo ser observada, a literatura procurou mensurá-la por meio de índices baseados justamente na distância entre as expectativas inflacionárias dos agentes econômicos e a meta previamente anunciada. Este trabalho estende a abordagem alternativa de Silva (2018) por meio de especificações do modelo Probit. A estratégia permitiu a análise do impacto de variáveis econômicas e políticas na credibilidade da política monetária para os anos de 2003 a 2021.
Title in English
Estimation of Brazil's monetary policy credibility
Keywords in English
Central Bank of Brazil
Credibility
Inflation targeting
Abstract in English
Reggarding the inflation targeting regime, the credibility of monetary policy is the expectations that economic agents have for the government in achieving the targets previously announced. Unable to be observed, the literature attempted to measure it through indices based on the distance between the inflationary expectations of economic agents and the previously announced target. This work extends the Silva (2018) approach through several specifications in Probit models. The strategy allowed the analysis of the impact of economic and political variables on the credibility of monetary policy for the years 2003 to 2021.
 
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Publishing Date
2022-08-03
 
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