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Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.96.2021.tde-26072021-095242
Document
Author
Full name
Bruno de Queiroz Caleman
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
Ribeirão Preto, 2021
Supervisor
Committee
Gomes, Fabio Augusto Reis (President)
Issler, Joao Victor
Rossi, Marina Delmondes de Carvalho
Title in English
Consumption predictability: the role of credit conditions
Keywords in English
Consumption
Credit
Intertemporal household choice
Abstract in English
The goal of this dissertation is to investigate the relationship between consumption and credit through a dynamic structural model. With impatient consumers and low income volatility, the dependence of consumption to consumer credit is a proxy of credit supply, opposing the usual interpretation. In this case, deregulation on credit markets would enhance the predictive power of consumer credit. However, with less impatient consumers and increased income volatility, more credit supply reduce the dependence of consumption to consumer credit. This theoretical evidence shows that there is ambiguity in interpreting the predictability of aggregate consumption, and understanding dependence of consumption to credit as a measure of credit constraints might be misleading.
Title in Portuguese
Previsibilidade do consumo: o papel das condições de crédito
Keywords in Portuguese
Consumo
Crédito
Escolha doméstica intertemporal
Abstract in Portuguese
O objetivo desta dissertação é investigar a relação entre consumo e crédito por meio de um modelo estrutural dinâmico. Com consumidores impacientes e baixa volatilidade da renda, a dependência do consumo em relação ao crédito para consumo é uma proxy da oferta de crédito, opondo-se a interpretação usual. Nesse caso, a desregulamentação dos mercados de crédito aumentaria o poder preditivo do crédito. No entanto, com consumidores menos impacientes e maior volatilidade da renda, mais oferta de crédito reduz a dependência do consumo em relação ao crédito para consumo. Essa evidência teórica mostra que há ambigüidade na interpretação da previsibilidade do consumo agregado, e entender a dependência do consumo em relação ao crédito como uma medida das restrições de crédito pode ser incorreto.
 
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Publishing Date
2021-07-26
 
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