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Master's Dissertation
DOI
10.11606/D.86.1995.tde-30042008-174207
Document
Author
Full name
Alexandre Uhlig de Oliveira
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 1995
Supervisor
Committee
Jannuzzi, Gilberto de Martino (President)
Bajay, Sergio Valdir
Moreira, Jose Guilherme de Souza
Title in Portuguese
Modelo Cascata: um instrumento de planejamento energético aplicado ao setor sucro-alcooleiro no Estado de São Paulo"
Keywords in Portuguese
Biomassa - política energética
Energia - fontes alternativas.
Planejamento Energético
Abstract in Portuguese
O modelo cascata, desenvolvido por consultores europeus e não difundido no Brasil, é formado por matrizes onde as colunas descrevem as tecnologias e as linhas as fontes de energia, e representa um completo balanço energético incluindo as tecnologias utilizadas na produção, extração, conversão, transporte e uso final. A avaliação quantitativa dos impactos e dos custos envolvidos é feita por intermédio de coeficientes de impactos e de custos, ou seja, cada matriz do balanço energético é multiplicada por sua correspondente matriz de coeficientes de impactos e de custos. O modelo, devido a sua construção, permite ainda simular cenários prospectivos a partir de informações obtidas em planos ou programas oficiais. Um levantamento histórico do planejamento energético no Brasil e dos modelos de energia utilizados em planejamento energético ajudaram a verificar a necessidade e a compreender melhor a concepção de instrumentos que auxiliem na tomada de decisão no setor energético brasileiro. Um estudo de caso, para o estado de São Paulo em 1991, utilizando a canade- açúcar como energético, foi elaborado a fim de ilustrar a utilidade do modelo cascata. A partir dos valores obtidos no balanço energético, foram elaborados três cenários prospectivos, que fornecem subsídios para a análise do futuro do setor sucro-alcooleiro.
Title in English
Cascade model: an instrument of energy planning applied to the ethanol sector in São Paulo State.
Keywords in English
Alternative Energy Source
Biomass
Energy planning
Abstract in English
The cascade model was developed by European consultants but it has not been available in Brazil. It is formed by matrices where columns represent types of technology and the rows represent types of energy. The resulting cascade of matrices represents a complete energy balance including all types of technology applied in the chain of extraction, conversion and use. The quantitative assessment of impacts and costs is made by the impacts and costs coefficients. For this purpose each of the energy balance matrices has to be multiplied by a corresponding matrix of impact and cost coefficients. The cascade model allows us to simulate scenarios with information obtained from official plans or programs. A historical survey of energy plan in Brazil, and of energy models, aid to check and to understand better the creation of tools that help decision makers and planning authorities in the Brazilian energy sector. A case study, for São Paulo State in 1991, using sugar cane as a type of energy, was made in order to show the utility of the cascade model. From the values obtained in the energy balance three scenarios were developed that provide assistance for the analysis of the future of the alcohol sector.
 
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UHLIG_modelo.pdf (633.65 Kbytes)
Publishing Date
2008-05-08
 
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