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Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.8.2019.tde-22122020-204142
Document
Author
Full name
Renato Morgado Soares
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2019
Supervisor
Committee
Martin, Andre Roberto (President)
Lahuerta, Milton
Martins, Elvio Rodrigues
Sallum Junior, Brasilio Joao
Title in Portuguese
Um voto na Geografia eleitoral: análise do território para as eleições presidenciais brasileiras entre 1998 e 2002
Keywords in Portuguese
Centralização Autoritária
Democracia
Descentralização Federalista
Eleição
Geoespacial
Presidente
Abstract in Portuguese
Esta pesquisa investiga a Geografia das eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 1998 e de 2002. De um determinado padrão de votos de FHC (1994:1998) houve uma significativa alteração da Geografia eleitoral no pleito de 2002 em favor de Lula. O objetivo principal da pesquisa é averiguar os fenômenos políticos-territoriais que podem ter influenciado o voto dos eleitores entre 1998 e 2002. Para constatar quais motivos podem ter persuadido os eleitores nestas duas eleições foi necessário examinar os métodos da Geografia eleitoral além de aplicar, por meio de técnicas estatísticas e de ferramenta Geoespacial, o cruzamento de variáveis sociodemográficas com as informações eleitorais. As referências bibliográficas foram utilizadas para revisar o desenvolvimento dos partidos políticos ao longo da história brasileira diante do debate político que contrapõe o centralismo autoritário e a descentralização federalista. Com uso de recortes de notícias dos principais jornais foi revisto o crescimento e amadurecimento eleitoral do PSDB e do PT. Posteriormente foi contextualizada a economia, a política, e as coligações partidárias que envolveram ambos os partidos nas eleições presidenciais. Estes respectivos exames tiveram como escopo temporal as eleições de 1998 e de 2002 e o recorte espacial de todo o território brasileiro. A partir destas análises foi visto que, além de todo o contexto político, econômico, social, sucedidos ao longo da história nacional, também foi revelada a importância do território para a preferência de eleitores, sendo ainda visto que, para vencer uma eleição à presidente é necessário conquistar o heartland brasileiro.
Title in English
A vote in the Electoral Geography: statistical analysis of the territory for the Brazilian presidential elections between 1998 and 2002
Keywords in English
Authoritarian Centralization
Decentralization Federalist
Democracy
Election
Geospatial
President
Abstract in English
This research investigates the Geography of the Brazilian presidential elections of 1998 and 2002. From a specific standard of votes by FHC (1994: 1998) there was a significant change in electoral Geography in the 2002 election in favor of Lula. The main objective of the research is to investigate the political-territorial phenomena that may have influenced the voters between 1998 and 2002. In order to determine what motives may have persuaded voters in these two elections, it was necessary to examine the methods of Electoral Geography and to apply, through statistical techniques and the Geospatial tool, the cross-referencing of sociodemographic variables with electoral information. The biographic references were used to review the development of political parties throughout Brazilian history in the face of the political debate that opposes authoritarian centralism and federalist decentralization. With the use of news clippings from the main newspapers, the growth and electoral maturity of the PSDB and the PT was reviewed. Subsequently, the economy, politics, and party coalitions that involved both parties in the presidential elections were contextualized. These respective examinations had as their temporal scope the elections of 1998 and of 2002 and the spatial cut of the whole Brazilian territory. Based on these analyzes, it was seen that, in addition to the entire political, economic and social context that occurred throughout national history, it was also revealed the importance of the territory for the preference of voters, and it was also seen that, in order to win an election to the president it is necessary to conquer the Brazilian heartland.
 
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Publishing Date
2020-12-22
 
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