Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.45.2016.tde-27102017-150037
Document
Author
Full name
Claudio Roberto de Oliveira
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2016
Supervisor
Committee
Cordani, Lisbeth Kaiserlian (President)
Paes, Angela Tavares
Silva, Claudia Borim da

Title in Portuguese
Julgando sob incerteza: heurísticas e vieses e o ensino de probabilidade e estatística
Keywords in Portuguese
Ensino de estatística
Falácias
Heurísticas
Vieses
Abstract in Portuguese

Title in English
Judging under uncertainty: heuristics and biases and teaching of probability and statistics
Keywords in English
Biases
Fallacies
Heuristics
Probability
Statistics teaching
Abstract in English
To find the contents of probability and statistics in high school in Brazil, the student is faced with a mathematical approach to the theory, the result of a school tradition in which mathematics has always been taught in a deterministic way, providing results and troubleshooting as if they were accurate within different contexts. It is what we see in a reference textbooks used by teachers in schools, where we find a highlight for permeated approach formalities and excessive formulas with notations of set theory, with little or sometimes total lack of discussions to enable a consistent view theory related to the disciplines of probability and statistics. Faced with such a scenario, many reasoning biases are found and often cited in studies related to teacher education with a focus on statistics education, such as errors and difficulties in designing concepts of probability and statistics. We will address the work of some authors on human reasoning which concentrates errors, biases and fallacies in a variety of mental patterns. The patterns are identified as heuristics that people use in judging under uncertainty, where they rely on a limited number of principles that reduce complex mental work to provide probability and predict values for simple trials systematically. We will use these very principles heuristic in a survey of these possible mental models to then be applied, in a second step, actions in the classroom. The purpose is to try to broaden the spectrum of student reasoning so that it has more basis to make estimates and forecasts in different contexts. Finally, these activities were tested in order to verify its effectiveness before mental models that may persist, as shown by the references, even for students and sufficiently trained in statistical professionals.