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Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.45.2020.tde-26082020-130705
Document
Author
Full name
Bernardo Franco Reimann
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2020
Supervisor
Committee
Esteves, Luís Gustavo (President)
González-lópez, Verónica Andrea
Stern, Rafael Bassi
Title in Portuguese
Testes de hipóteses agnósticos como alternativa logicamente consistente em testes simultâneos
Keywords in Portuguese
Propriedades lógicas
Teoria da decisão
Testes agnósticos
Testes de hipóteses
Testes simultâneos
Abstract in Portuguese
Testes de hipóteses são uma ferramenta da inferência estatística muito utilizada por profissionais de diversas áreas. Infelizmente, ainda que testes ótimos tenham sido construídos para a avaliação de uma única hipótese, é possível obter conclusões difíceis de interpretar ao realizarmos testes simultâneos com o mesmo conjunto de dados. Diversos estudos recentes discutem propriedades que caracterizam possíveis inconsistências lógicas ao testar hipóteses distintas simultaneamente. Nesse trabalho, revisamos essas propriedades com exemplos para os testes de hipóteses usuais. Também revisamos essas propriedades para os testes de hipóteses agnósticos, onde, alem de aceitar ou rejeitar uma determinada hipótese, podemos permanecer agnósticos, suspendendo o julgamento nos casos em que a evidência fornecida pelos dados for insuficiente para decidir pelas duas alternativas usuais. Finalmente, apresentamos ainda alguns resultados que conferem otimalidade estatística, sob a perspectiva da teoria da decisão bayesiana, a testes agnósticos logicamente consistentes.
Title in English
Agnostic hypothesis testing as a logically consistent alternative in simultaneous tests
Keywords in English
Agnostic tests
Decision theory
Hypothesis testing
Logical properties
Simultaneous tests
Abstract in English
Hypothesis tests are a statistical inference tool widely used by professionals in different areas. Unfortunately, it is possible to obtain conclusions that are diffcult to interpret when performing simultaneous tests with the same data set despite the existence of optimal tests for a single hypothesis. Several recent studies discuss properties that characterize possible logical inconsistencies when testing different hypotheses simultaneously. In this work we review these properties with examples for the usual hypothesis tests. We also review these properties for agnostic hypothesis tests, in which, in addition to accepting or rejecting a given hypothesis, it is possible to remain agnostic, withholding judgment in cases where the evidence provided by the data is insuficient to decide between the two usual alternatives. Finally, we present some results that grant statistical optimality to agnostic hypothesis testing, under the Bayesian decision-theoretic framework
 
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Publishing Date
2021-03-02
 
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