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Master's Dissertation
DOI
10.11606/D.45.2000.tde-19072012-112940
Document
Author
Full name
Marcelo Leme de Arruda
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2000
Supervisor
Committee
Wechsler, Sergio (President)
Cordeiro, Gauss Moutinho
Simonis, Adilson
Title in Portuguese
Poisson, Bayes, Futebol e DeFinetti
Keywords in Portuguese
Curvas de Calibração
Distribuição de Poisson
Eventos Tricotômicos
Futebol
Medida de DeFinetti
Abstract in Portuguese
Nesta dissertação é abordado o problema de previsões probabilísticas para eventos tricotômicos, além da questão de comparação de qualidade das previsões através de curvas de calibração e da Medida de DeFinetti. É feita uma aplicação paraprevisões de resultados de futebol
Title in English
Poisson, Bayes, Soccer and DeFinetti
Keywords in English
Calibration Curves
DeFinetti Measure
Poisson Distribution
Soccer
Tricotomic Events
Abstract in English
This dissertation deals with the problem of probabilistic previsions for tricotomic events, in addiction with the question of comparison of quality of the previsions, by using calibration curves and the DeFinetti Measure. An application is developed for previsions of soccer games results.
 
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Publishing Date
2012-07-27
 
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