Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.45.2022.tde-11032022-203209
Document
Author
Full name
Luís Eduardo dos Santos Lopes
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2022
Supervisor
Committee
Oliva Filho, Sergio Muniz (President)
Ferreira, Cláudia Pio
Kraenkel, Roberto Andre
Title in Portuguese
Modelagem matemática da competição entre mosquitos Aedes aegypti selvagens e infectados pela bactéria Wolbachia sob o efeito da temperatura
Keywords in Portuguese
Aedes aegypti
Herança materna
Modelo não autônomo
Temperatura
Wolbachia
Abstract in Portuguese
Title in English
Mathematical modeling of the competition between wild and Wolbachia infected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes under the effect of temperature.
Keywords in English
Aedes aegypti
Cytoplasmic incompatibility
Maternal inheritance
Non-autonomous model
Temperature
Wolbachia
Abstract in English
Controlling the population of Aedes aegypti, the main vector of viral diseases such as dengue, Zika, yellow fever and Chikungunya, is still a challenge in many places around the world. One of the control strategies is the use of the Wolbachia bacteria. The method consists of replacing or suppressing the wild Aedes aegypti population with the Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti population. The presence of the bacteria in the mosquitoes prevents viral replication and therefore blocks the transmission of arboviruses. Since insects are ectothermic, i.e. do not regulate internal temperature, this becomes one of the main abiotic factors influencing mosquito reproduction, development and mortality. In addition, the bacteria are also influenced by temperature. In this context, a mathematical model is proposed to analyze the impact of temperature and infection by a Wolbachia strain on the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti. This model is structured by delay-differential system that simulates well the temporal dynamics of a mosquito population. Since the parameters of the model depend on temperature it becomes non-autonomous. The existence and stability conditions of the equilibrium points are analyzed for the autonomous model and help to evaluate the persistence and extinction scenarios of the populations. The numerical simulations show that the release of infected mosquitoes is more advantageous when more than one release is made in a given period of time and at mild temperatures, but they are sensitive to high and low temperatures. Changing the model parameters regarding the maternal inheritance of infection and the probability of cytoplasmic incompatibility may result in different results, such as the replacement or coexistence of both populations and even the extinction of the infected population.

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Publishing Date
2022-04-01

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