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Doctoral Thesis
DOI
10.11606/T.12.2011.tde-26032012-200622
Document
Author
Full name
Mauricio Dias Leister
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2011
Supervisor
Committee
Aldrighi, Dante Mendes (President)
Amado, Adriana Moreira
Mendonça, Helder Ferreira de
Paulani, Leda Maria
Silva, Marcos Eugenio da
Title in Portuguese
Bolhas e política monetária: evidências para a economia brasileira
Keywords in Portuguese
Finanças internacionais
Mercado de capitais
Política monetária
Abstract in Portuguese
Este trabalho tem como tema os dilemas dos bancos centrais na condução da política monetária quando se vêem diante de bolhas de ativos mobiliários ou imobiliários. Primeiramente será apresentado o conceito teórico de bolha de acordo a tradição da hipótese dos mercados eficientes, por um lado, e segundo as visões que admitem alguma manifestação de irracionalidade/imperfeição no comportamento dos agentes participantes dos mercados financeiros (Keynes, Minsky e Finanças Comportamentais), por outro lado. Em seguida busca-se compreender o comportamento dos principais agentes econômicos no ambiente de finanças desregulamentadas, que surgiu a partir da década de 1970, bem como as vantagens e desvantagens de se adotar uma política monetária passiva diante das bolhas (como prefere a visão neoclássica convencional) ou pró-ativa (como defende a visão alternativa). Por fim, analisam-se como os agentes econômicos brasileiros se comportam nesse contexto, o potencial de geração de bolhas na economia doméstica e quais as dificuldades adicionais do Banco Central do Brasil, em relação às economias centrais, no manejo da política monetária em ambiente de bolhas de ativos.
Title in English
Bubbles and monetary policy: evidences for the Brazilian economy
Keywords in English
Capital market
International finance
Monetary policy
Abstract in English
The subject of this work are the trade-offs and challenges faced by Central Banks in the conduction of the monetary policy in the occurrence of a stock or real state bubble. In this thesis are presented the opinions of economists that believe in the random walk theory and in the efficient market hypothesis, and of those that assume some irrationality in the behavior of financial markets (Keynes, Minsky and Behavioral Finance) in respect of how Central Banks should use the monetary policy in the occurrence of bubbles. First it is showed the theoretic bubble concept under these two viewpoints. After that, the second chapter shows the behavior of main economic agents in the environment of deregulation, which emerged from the 1970s, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of adopting an either passive or active monetary policy to combat bubbles. Finally, the last chapter presents how brazilian economic agents behave in this context, the potential to generate bubbles in the domestic economy and the additional difficulties of the brazilian Central Bank in the management of monetary policy on asset bubbles environment.
 
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Capa.pdf (169.49 Kbytes)
Publishing Date
2012-04-11
 
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