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Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.12.2004.tde-06122021-162200
Document
Author
Full name
Marcelo Villela de Araujo
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2004
Supervisor
Committee
Securato, Jose Roberto (President)
Oliveira, Edson Ferreira de
Ribeiro, Celma de Oliveira
Title in Portuguese
O preço de mercado do risco de crédito nos títulos públicos federais
Keywords in Portuguese
Administração
Crédito
Modelos em séries temporais
Títulos públicos
Abstract in Portuguese
Esta dissertação consiste em aplicar e testar um modelo de estrutura temporal de dois fatores para descrever a taxa de desconto ajustada ao risco de crédito de títulos públicos no Brasil. O modelo baseia-se em dois fatores de risco independentes: a taxa de juros interbancária para um ano de prazo, especificado como processo raiz quadrada, e o spread de crédito dos títulos, medido através do excesso de retomo sobre a taxa interbancária e especificado como processo de Ohrstein-Uhrlenbeck. Estima-se os parâmetros do modelo pelo método da máxima verossimilhança e testa-se o preço de mercado pelo risco de crédito pelo teste de razão de verossimilhança
Title in English
The market price of credit risk in federal government bonds
Keywords in English
Administration
Credit
Public bonds
Time series models
Abstract in English
This dissertation applies and tests a two-factor model of the term structure of interest rates adapted to account for the sovereign default risk adjusted discount rate of Brazilian local government bonds. This model is based upon two independent risk factors: one-year local interbank deposit rate, specified as a square-root process; and the credit spread embedded on these bonds, measured as an excess return over the interbank deposit rate and specified as an Ohrstein-Uhrlenbeck process. It uses a maximum-likelihood estimation procedure and it tests the market price of default risk through a ratio test
 
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Publishing Date
2021-12-08
 
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