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Doctoral Thesis
DOI
10.11606/T.12.2002.tde-30082010-001701
Document
Author
Full name
André Lunardelli
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2002
Supervisor
Committee
Lima, Gilberto Tadeu (President)
Andrade, Joaquim Pinto de
Carneiro, Francisco Galrão
Rocha, Fabiana Fontes
Soromenho, Jorge Eduardo de Castro
Title in Portuguese
Inércia inflacionária e o custo das estabilizações nos EUA
Keywords in Portuguese
Curva de Phillips
Desinflações
Fairness
Inércia inflacionária
Taxa de sacrifício
Abstract in Portuguese
Utilizando a survey junto ao consumidor da universidade de Michigan, obtivemos dados a respeito das expectativas dos agentes não só sobre inflação, mas também sobre nível de atividade (os estudos de Roberts (1997) utilizaram apenas os dados de survey sobre expectativas inflacionárias). Verificamos, então, que grande parcela do custo das estabilizações dos EUA foi antecipado pela maior parte dos agentes, o que nos levou a rejeitar os modelos de Taylor (1979, 1980) e de Calvo (1983), mesmo em suas versões com as hipóteses de falta de credibilidade e informação homogeneamente defasada. Em seguida discutimos como um modelo com fairness, pode explicar este quebra cabeças. Finalmente, examinamos, três possíveis fatores (mutuamente compatíveis): a hipótese de que parte da população tenha expectativas inconsistentes, incerteza knightiana e o modelo com fairness. Nossos resultados empíricos penderam a favor de uma combinação de pelo menos uma das duas últimas alternativas com a primeira.
Title in English
Inflation inertia and the disinflations costs in the US
Keywords in English
Disinflation
Fairness
Inflation inertia
New Keynesian Phillips curve
Sacrifice ratio
Abstract in English
Using the Michigan Universitys consumer survey, we obtained data about agents expectations of both inflation and output (the latter had not been used in Roberts (1997) studies). With this, we were able to verify that a great part of the sacrifice ratios of the US stabilizations were anticipated by common agents, rejecting the Taylor (1979, 1980) and Calvo (1983) models and, with it, the hypothesis that the only reasons underlying them are staggered contracts, homogeneous sticky information and lack in credibility. WE, then, discuss how a model with fairness can explain this puzzle. Finally, we examine three (mutually consistent) factors: the hipothesis that part of the population have inconsistent expectatitons, Knightian uncertainty and te model with fairness. The results favored the combination of at least one of the two latter alternatives with te former.
 
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Lunardelli2002.pdf (1.54 Mbytes)
Publishing Date
2010-08-31
 
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