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Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.12.2010.tde-28072010-151057
Document
Author
Full name
Eduardo Ferreira Jardim
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2010
Supervisor
Committee
Rodrigues Junior, Mauro (President)
Madeira, Gabriel de Abreu
Ponczek, Vladimir Pinheiro
Title in Portuguese
Programas de estabilização e o consumo de bens duráveis
Keywords in Portuguese
Bens duráveis
Inflação
Plano Cruzado
Política antiinflacionária
Abstract in Portuguese
Este trabalho desenvolve um modelo para explicar a expansão de consumo que freqüentemente sucede planos de estabilização baseados em congelamento de preços ou câmbio. A perspectiva adotada centra no consumo de bens duráveis e na dificuldade dos domicílios de proteger seus ativos da inflação. Uma redução repentina da inflação leva a uma queda do preço efetivo do bem de consumo durável, o que gera a expansão de consumo. O modelo é calibrado para o Brasil do período do plano Cruzado e são realizadas simulações supondo uma estabilização de preços permanente, uma com duração de 10 meses e outra de 3 meses. As duas primeiras apresentam uma expansão próxima, mas superior ao observado nos dados. A terceira simulação, porém, mostra uma expansão em torno de um quarto do observado. Também são discutidas variações no tempo médio de poupança para aquisição do bem durável e no consumo de bens não-duráveis.
Title in English
Stabilization plans and durable goods consumption
Keywords in English
Cruzado Plan
Durable goods
Inflation
Stabilization plans
Abstract in English
This thesis presents a model to explain consumption booms after inflation stabilization plans centered on price and exchange rate controls. The focus is directed to durable goods and the difficulty for households to protect themselves from inflation. A sudden decrease in the inflation rate reduces durable goods effective price of consumption, leading to a boom. The model is then calibrated for mid-80s Brazil and three simulations are presented: one for a permanent stabilization of inflation and two temporary stabilizations, with a length of 10 and 3 months each. The first two present an expansion in the ownership of consumer durables that is slightly higher than what is shown in the data. The third simulation, on the other hand, presents a growth in ownership that is a quarter of the total seen in the data. Changes in the average savings period and in non-durables consumption are also discussed.
 
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Publishing Date
2010-08-02
 
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