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Master's Dissertation
DOI
10.11606/D.12.2012.tde-17122012-114653
Document
Author
Full name
João Bevilaqua Teixeira Basto
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2012
Supervisor
Committee
Madeira, Gabriel de Abreu (President)
Rodrigues Junior, Mauro
Santos, Daniel Domingues dos
Title in Portuguese
Choques climáticos, crédito e poupança no Brasil, uma análise empírica
Keywords in Portuguese
Análise empírica
Caderneta de poupança
Crédito
Depósitos de poupança
Risco - Aspectos econômicos
Abstract in Portuguese
Esse trabalho tem como objetivo verificar se o sistema bancário brasileiro protege indivíduos contra os choques transitivos de renda. Por meio de experimentos e avaliação empírica, em pequenas regiões, a literatura tenta explicar como arranjos informais podem contornar os problemas de crédito causados por falhas informacionais e de comprometimento limitado. No entanto, falha em avaliar choques que afetam uma região geográfica ampla já que esses são comportados apenas por bancos. Através de um modelo de dois estágios com variação de renda instrumentalizada por variáveis climáticas, analisamos se existe um efeito significante entre os choques e as contas de crédito das instituições formais. Verificamos que os agentes usam poupança como meio principal de suavizar seu risco intertemporal. As contas de crédito, entretanto possuem um efeito distinto em municípios com mais desenvolvimento financeiro do que aqueles com menos. Isso indica que possuímos uma restrição de crédito para parte da população, deixando-a exposta ao seu risco.
Title in English
Climate shock, credit and savings in Brazil an empirical analysis
Keywords in English
Credit
Empirical analysis
Risk
Savings deposits
Abstract in English
This work aims to verify whether the Brazilian banking system protects individuals against transitive income shocks. Through experiments and empirical evaluation in small regions, literature tries to explain how informal arrangements can overcome credit problems caused by informational failures and limited commitment. But they fail to evaluate shocks that affect a broad geographic region that can only be dealt with banks. Through a two-stage model with varying income instrumentalized by climatic variables, we analyze whether there is a significant effect between shocks and credit accounts of formal institutions. We verify that agents use savings as the primary means of smoothing their intertemporal risk. The credit accounts however have a distinct effect in counties with more financial development than the ones with the least. This indicates that we have a credit crunch for a portion of the population, leaving it exposed to their risk.
 
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Publishing Date
2013-01-09
 
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