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Doctoral Thesis
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/T.12.1993.tde-12112021-102854
Document
Author
Full name
Nelson Carvalheiro
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 1993
Supervisor
Committee
Duarte, Adriano Romariz (President)
Chumvichitra, Pichai
Luque, Carlos Antonio
Manoel, Alvaro
Silber, Simao Davi
Title in Portuguese
Planejamento e crescimento na economia brasileira: 1959-1980
Keywords in Portuguese
Economia
Planejamento econômico
Plano nacional de desenvolvimento
Abstract in Portuguese
O objetivo deste trabalho é apresentar alguns aspectos da experiência brasileira de planejamento do crescimento econômico a partir do Programa de Metas, e até o II Plano Nacional de Desenvolvimento, a fim de avaliar o sucesso das estratégias explicitadas nos diversos documentos do período. Para essa finalidade, o estudo utiliza informações das matrizes de relações intersetoriais calculadas para o Brasil pelo IPEA (1959) e IBGE (1970,1975 e 1980), resumindo-as em 27 setores. O trabalho abrange os principais fatores causais do crescimento e de mudanças estruturais na economia do lado da demanda: expansão da demanda doméstica, acréscimo das exportações, substituição de importações e alterações nos coeficientes técnicos. Para comparar os resultados com os objetivos contidos nos planos, o estudo concentra-se nas estratégias voltadas para o comércio internacional - expansão de exportações e substituição de importações. Os resultados permitem melhor entendimento das estratégias de crescimento contidas nos documentos de planejamento e têm a pretensão de subsidiar o debate a respeito das vantagens e desvantagens da liberalização comercial
Title in English
Planning and growth in the Brazilian economy: 1959-1980
Keywords in English
Economic planning
Economics
National economic development plan
Abstract in English
The aim of this work is to present some aspects of Brazilian planning experience on economic growth since Programa de Metas (1956/61) until II Plano Nacional de Desenvolvimento (1974/79), in order to appraise the success of strategies associated with documents of planning in the period. Trying to reach this objective, the study makes use of data from input-output matrices showing the structure of the production relationships in Brazilian economy, calculated by IPEA (1959) and IBGE (1970, 1975 and 1980), summed up in 27 sectors. The thesis uses an approach to analyzing the source effects of economic growth and structural changes in a demand view: domestic demand expansion, import substitution and change on technological coefficients. Making comparisons of the results with planning objectives, the study concentrates his efforts on strategies related to foreign exchange export expansion and import substitution. The results allow better understanding of growth strategies of planning documents and can help discussions about advantages and disadvantages of trade liberalization
 
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Publishing Date
2021-11-12
 
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