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Mémoire de Maîtrise
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.12.2021.tde-10012022-184834
Document
Auteur
Nom complet
Matheus Cardoso Leal
Adresse Mail
Unité de l'USP
Domain de Connaissance
Date de Soutenance
Editeur
São Paulo, 2021
Directeur
Jury
Nakane, Márcio Issao (Président)
Graminho, Flávia Mourão
Pessoa, Samuel de Abreu
Rodrigues Junior, Mauro
Titre en portugais
Business cycle accounting para o Brasil
Mots-clés en portugais
Business cycle accounting
DSGE
Wedges
Resumé en portugais
Com a adoção de políticas econômicas contracíclicas, o Brasil foi menos afetado pela Crise de 2008 do que a média do resto do mundo, com crescimento anual médio de 4.11% entre 2008 e 2011, frente aos 3.25% desse grupo para o mesmo período. Isso fez com que o país terminasse a década de 2000 com crescimento médio anual de 3.91% entre 2002 e 2010, acima dos 2.69% observados na média de seus pares latino-americanos. Apesar disso, entretanto, a deterioração das contas públicas levou à piora expressiva do cenário macroeconômico a partir de 2014, que resultou em redução do investimento privado, aumento do desemprego e taxas de crescimento negativas. Diante disso, o presente trabalho objetiva analisar as flutuações macroeconômicas experimentadas pela economia brasileira sob o arcabouço analítico de Business Cycle Accouting (BCA) para dados trimestrais de 2002 a 2019. Dentre os principais resultados encontrados, destaca-se que o efficiency wedge foi o principal responsável na reprodução dos movimentos de produto observados em ambas as crises, seguido pelo labor wedge.
Titre en anglais
Accounting for Brazil's business cycles
Mots-clés en anglais
Business cycle accounting
DSGE
Wedges
Resumé en anglais
With the implementation of countercyclical economic policies, Brazil was less affected by the 2008 Crisis than the average for the rest of the world, with an average annual growth of 4.11% between 2008 and 2011, compared to 3.25% for this group for the same period. This meant that the country ended the 2000s with an average annual growth of 3.91% between 2002 and 2010, above the 2.69% seen in the average of its Latin American peers. Despite this, the worsening of Brazils debt led to a significant deterioration of the macroeconomic scenario as of 2014, which resulted in a reduction in private investment, an increase in unemployment and negative growth rates for several quarters. In this sense, this masters dissertation aims to analyze the macroeconomic fluctuations experienced by the Brazilian economy using the analytical framework developed by Business Cycle Accouting (BCA) for quarterly data from 2002 to 2019. Among the main results found, the efficiency wedge was the main responsible for reproducing the output movements observed in both crises, followed by labor wedge.
 
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Date de Publication
2022-01-31
 
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