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Master's Dissertation
DOI
10.11606/D.12.2008.tde-04062008-100703
Document
Author
Full name
Fabricio Marques Santos
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2008
Supervisor
Committee
Aldrighi, Dante Mendes (President)
Meirelles, Jose Gabriel Porcile
Rocha, Fabiana Fontes
Title in Portuguese
Crescimento sob restrição externa: uma análise utilizando técnicas de dinâmica de sistemas
Keywords in Portuguese
Metodologia de simulação
Princípio da demanda efetiva
Restrição externa
Teoria de dinâmica de sistemas
Abstract in Portuguese
O assunto a ser tratado neste trabalho é a relação entre o crescimento econômico e a restrição externa. O objetivo do trabalho é construir um modelo macroeconômico de simulação que sirva de instrumento de análise, ainda que modesto, da relação entre os componentes de Demanda Agregada (DA) e as variáveis do Balanço de Pagamentos (BP) da economia brasileira no período 1947-2006. O modelo baseia-se no Princípio da Demanda Efetiva (PDE) formalizado inicialmente por Keynes e Kalecki, através do qual Thirlwall (1979) derivou um resultado geral de como a restrição de equilíbrio do Balanço de Pagamentos (BP) limita o crescimento de uma economia no longo prazo. A Teoria de Dinâmica de Sistemas (DS) constitui a base metodológica para abordar esse tema. Essa é uma teoria de modelagem e simulação de sistemas complexos, e a sua utilização permitirá tratar de forma integrada as variáveis a serem analisadas. No final do trabalho, apresentar-se-ão algumas simulações com o objetivo de identificar o impacto de cenários alternativos (com mudança de parâmetros e condições iniciais) sobre a taxa de crescimento da economia no período 1947-2006.
Title in English
Growth in external restriction: an analysis using techniques of dynamic systems
Keywords in English
Foreign restriction
Principle of effective demand
Simulation methodology
Theory of system dynamics
Abstract in English
The matter to be treated in this work is the relationship between economic growth and foreign restriction. The objective is to build a macroeconomic simulation model to serve as a tool for analysis, though modest,of the relationship between the components of Aggregate Demand and the variables of the Balance of Payments of the Brazilian economy in the period 1947-2006. The model is based on the Principle of Effective Demand, formalized initially by Keynes and Kalecki, through which Thirlwall (1979) derived a general result of how the restriction of the Balance of Payments limits growth of an economy in the long run. The Theory of System Dynamics forms the methodological basis for addressing this theme. This is a theory of modeling and simulation of complex systems, and its use will allow to treat the variables to be examined in an integrated way. At the end of the work it will be presented some simulations with the goal of identifying the impact of alternative scenarios (with change of parameters and initial conditions) on the growth rate of the economy in the period 1947-2006.
 
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Fabricio_Marques.pdf (559.04 Kbytes)
Publishing Date
2008-06-23
 
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