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Master's Dissertation
DOI
10.11606/D.12.2005.tde-03012006-113732
Document
Author
Full name
Adriano Giacomini Morais
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2005
Supervisor
Committee
Bender, Siegfried (President)
Haddad, Eduardo Amaral
Kannebley Júnior, Sérgio
Title in Portuguese
Criação e desvio de comércio no Mercosul e no Nafta
Keywords in Portuguese
Integração econômica
Mercosul
Modelo gravitacional
Nafta
Abstract in Portuguese
A integração comercial entre países vem ocorrendo através de negociações multilaterais e acordos regionais. As teorias de comércio internacional dizem que as primeiras provocam aumento de bem-estar. Entretanto, não há consenso sobre os efeitos dos segundos. O papel deste trabalho é justamente avaliar os impactos de dois acordos comerciais, o Mercosul e o Nafta, sobre dois critérios de bem-estar, a criação e o desvio de comércio. Isso é feito através da estimação de equações gravitacionais para dados em painel, com a inclusão de variáveis dummy para captar a relação intra e extra-bloco, conforme metodologia apresentada por Endoh (1999). Os resultados apontaram que não ocorreu criação de comércio em ambos os acordos. O Nafta foi seguido por desvio de comércio e o Mercosul apresentou dificuldades na mensuração do mesmo.
Title in English
Trade creation and trade diversion in Mercosur and Nafta
Keywords in English
Gravity model
Mercosur
Nafta
Regional economic integration
Abstract in English
The commercial integration between countries has been taking place through multilateral negotiations and regional agreements. Economic theories of international trade say that the first one improves welfare. However, there is no consensus about the second one. The aim of this dissertation is just to evaluate the effects of two agreements, Mercosur and Nafta, on two concepts of welfare, trade creation and trade diversion. This is done through the estimation of gravity equations by panel data methods, with dummy variables to detect intra-bloc and extra-bloc relations, according to the methodology of Endoh (1999). The results suggested that trade creation has not occurred in both agreements. Nafta was followed by trade diversion and Mercosur presented difficulties in measuring this component.
 
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DissAGM.pdf (434.94 Kbytes)
Publishing Date
2006-01-17
 
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