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Master's Dissertation
DOI
10.11606/D.12.2018.tde-02102018-114154
Document
Author
Full name
Luiz Henrique Ferreira Cruz e Superti
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2018
Supervisor
Committee
Narita, Renata Del Tedesco (President)
Berriel, Cecilia Machado
Corbi, Raphael Bottura
Ginja, Rita Camila Santos Miguel Prata
Title in Portuguese
Efeitos do programa brasileiro de transferência de renda sobre a fecundidade: evidências atravéss do uso de regressão descontínua
Keywords in Portuguese
Bolsa família
Fecundidade
Regressão descontínua
Transferência de renda
Abstract in Portuguese
O programa de transferencia de renda Bolsa Familia e um importante pilar da seguri- dade social brasileira, mas ha um senso comum de que as transferencias do programa incentivam casais beneficiarios a terem mais filhos. Utilizando base de dados do governo federal (Cadunico e Caixa) e valendo-se dos criterios de eligibilidade, prop6e-se uma ine- dita analise quase experimental para estudar os efeitos das transferencias nao condicionais (UCT) e das condicionais (CCT) sobre a fecundidade das beneficiarias entre os anos de 2011 a 2015, atraves de uma regressao descontinua fuzzy. Problemas de medida associa- dos a base (e.g.: manipulacao, arredondamento, atrito) sao remediados com a estimacao nao parametrica proposta por Gerard, Rokkanen & Rothe (2016), em que se determina limites superiores e inferiores aos efeitos de tratamento. Por um lado, nao ha evidencia de que o componente CCT afete a fecundidade das beneficiarias, mas por outro, o com- ponente mais flexivel do Bolsa Familia, o UCT, possivelmente reduziu a fecundidade das beneficiarias mais pobres, sobretudo no Nordeste. Tais resultados sao contraintuitivos em relacao a literatura te6rica ate entao, mas em linha com a grande maioria dos resultados encontrados em programas similares da America Latina.
Title in English
Effects on fertility of the Brazilian cash transfer program: evidence from a regression discontinuity approach
Keywords in English
Cash transfers
Family allowance
Fertility
Regression descontinuity
Abstract in English
The Brazilian cash transfer program Balsa Familia is a very, if not the most, important pil- lar of Brazil's welfare system. However, there is a common sense that the program's trans- fers incentive beneficiary couples to have more children. Using federal data (Cadunico and Caixa databases) and the eligibility rules for the program, I propose a quasi-experimental approach to verify both unconditional (UCT) and conditional transfers (CCT) on the beneficiaries' fertility rates between 2011 and 2015, through a fuzzy regression disconti- nuity approach. Measure problems associated with the data (e.g.: manipulation, heaping, attriton), are solved using a non parametric estimation proposed by Gerard, Rokkanen & Rothe (2016), which determines lower and upper bounds for treatment effects. On one hand, there is no evidence that the CCT component affects the beneficiaries' fertility rates, but on another, the more flexible component of Bolsa Familia, UCT, possibly reduced the fertility rates for the most poor. Those results are counter intuitive with the theoretical literature so far, but in line with the majority of other studies analyzing similar transfer programs in Latin America.
 
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CorrigidaqLuiz.pdf (1.38 Mbytes)
Publishing Date
2018-10-04
 
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