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Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.12.2005.tde-01082022-153011
Document
Author
Full name
Gabriel Garber
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2005
Supervisor
Committee
Rocha, Fabiana Fontes (President)
Martone, Celso Luiz
Nakane, Márcio Issao
Title in Portuguese
Risco país e efeitos não-lineares da política fiscal na América Latina
Keywords in Portuguese
América Latina
Dívida pública
Política fiscal
Risco
Abstract in Portuguese
Embora a política fiscal seja um tema de interesse central em macroeconomia, ainda há muito que não sabemos a seu respeito. Em especial, quando se trata da América Latina a quantidade de pesquisas na área é relativamente pequena, o que se deve principalmente à escassez e má qualidade dos dados disponíveis e à concentração de esforços da região na questão do controle inflacionário. Esta dissertação investiga os efeitos da política fiscal sobre o consumo privado em países da América Latina dentro do contexto da literatura de efeitos não-lineares, que argumenta que a reação do setor privado a estes estímulos do governo depende de como eles são interpretados e, portanto, das mudanças de expectativas que ocasionam. Particularmente, questionamos se e como a resposta do consumo privado depende do risco país inicial, já que esta é uma variável que concentra expectativas. Usando os estimadores de Efeitos Fixos e Arellano e Bond (1991) para dados em painel, encontramos que a política fiscal gera efeitos keynesianos em contextos de alto risco, enquanto que em situações de risco moderado a resposta se reverte.
Title in English
Country risk and non-linear effects of fiscal policy in Latin America
Keywords in English
Fiscal policy
Latin America
Public debt
Risk
Abstract in English
Although fiscal policy is a therne of mayor interest in macroeconomics, there is a lot about it that we still do not know. When we focus on Latin America this problem is aggravated, given the relatively small amount on research in the field, mostly due to scarce and poor data availability and to the concentration of efforts in the region on the control of inflaiion. This dissertation studies the effects of fiscal policy on privale consumption in Latin American countries in the context of non-linear effects literature, which argues that the reaction of the private sector to these government stimuli depends on how they are interpreted and, therefore, on the expectation changes they bring about. Particularly, we ask if and how the private consumption response depends on the initial country risk, since this is a variable that gathers expectations together. Using Fixed Effects and Arellano and Bond (1991) panel data estimators, we find that fiscal policy yields Keynesian effects on private consumption for high-risk settings, while in low-risk situations this response is reversed.
 
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MsGabrielGarber.pdf (4.21 Mbytes)
Publishing Date
2022-08-01
 
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