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Master's Dissertation
DOI
10.11606/D.11.2008.tde-12062008-145141
Document
Author
Full name
Vanessa de Cillos Silva
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
Piracicaba, 2008
Supervisor
Committee
Shirota, Ricardo (President)
Carvalho, Maria Auxiliadora de
Lima, Roberto Arruda de Souza
Title in Portuguese
Estimativa da taxa de subsídio ex-ante no crédito rural no período de 1981 a 2005
Keywords in Portuguese
Credito rural
Inflação
Subsídios
Taxa de juros.
Abstract in Portuguese
O crédito rural desempenhou um relevante papel no desenvolvimento da agricultura brasileira. Apesar disso, a evolução histórica do montante de recursos oficiais destinados aos agricultores mostrou forte decréscimo a partir do final dos anos 70. Uma das causas desta redução foi a presença de subsídio nesta modalidade de financiamento, de forma insustentável diante das restrições da economia brasileira. A literatura apresenta este volume elevado de subsídio como tendo sido buscado intencionalmente pela política em vigor na época. O presente trabalho busca verificar se houve uma política explícita de subsídio via taxa de juros preferenciais ou se, ex-post, ele ocorreu em excesso. A principal indicativa do estudo é a de que o subsídio seria resultado da aceleração não prevista do processo inflacionário no Brasil durante a segunda metade do século passado. A análise deste problema permitirá estudos sobre a política de crédito rural sob uma perspectiva diferente daquela predominante na literatura. Nesta nova perspectiva, os subsídios em excesso seriam, ao menos em parte, resultado da imprevisibilidade e instabilidade do cenário macroeconômico e não um fim claramente buscado pela política de crédito rural no Brasil. Os resultados verificados neste estudo ressaltam esta indicativa de política de crédito subsidiada em decorrência do processo inflacionário não previsto pelas expectativas inflacionárias. As expectativas inflacionárias mostraram-se inferiores em grande parte do período analisado, o que ocasiona uma taxa de juros real inferior a esperada. Pode-se concluir que o programa de crédito rural foi excessivamente subsidiado em virtude do descontrole inflacionário do país.
Title in English
Ex ante subsidized rates estimate in rural credit from 1981 to 2005
Keywords in English
Inflation
Interest rates
Rural credit
Subside.
Abstract in English
Rural credit played a relevant role in the development of Brazilian agriculture. However, the historical evolution of the amount of official resources aimed at farmers showed a sharp decrease since the late 1970s. One of the reasons for this reduction was the subside in this type of credit, which became unsustainable before the restrictions of the Brazilian economy. Literature shows that this high subside volume was intentionally provoked by the policy enforced at the time. This work has the objective of verifying whether there was an explicit subside policy via referential interest rates, or it was overpaid ex post. The main indicative of the study is that the overpaid subside is the result of the unpredicted acceleration of the inflationary process in Brazil during the second half of the last century. The analysis of this problem will make it possible for other studies about the rural credit policy to be carried out from a different perspective than the one predominating in literature. In this new perspective, subsides would be at least partly the result of unpredictability and instability of the macroeconomic scenario and not a solution clearly determined by the rural credit policy in Brazil. The results found in this study led to this indicative of subsidized credit policy due to the inflationary process not foreseen by inflation forecasts. Inflation forecasts were lower in most of the analyzed period, provoking a lower interest rate than the one expected. We conclude that the rural credit program was overpaid subsidized due to the uncontrolled inflation in the country.
 
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Publishing Date
2008-06-20
 
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