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Doctoral Thesis
Full name
Robert Myles McDonnell
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
São Paulo, 2016
Oliveira, Amâncio Jorge Silva Nunes de (President)
Bernabel, Rodolpho Talaisys
Pinheiro, Flavio Leão
Mignozzetti, Umberto Guarnier
Ribeiro, Pedro Feliú
Title in English
Explaining the determinants of Foreign Policy voting behaviour in the Brazilian Houses of Legislature, with a focus on the Senate
Keywords in English
Bayesian item response
Brazilian Legislative Politics
Foreign Policy
Abstract in English
This thesis seeks to analyse nominal voting patterns in the Brazilian houses of legislature, in particular the Federal Senate and with a focus on foreign policy issues. Foreign policy analysis through nominal votes has often been focused on the Chamber of Deputies, and so a primary objective of this thesis is to extend the discussion to the Senate, which is in many ways the more powerful institution in this area, in a way that is formally comparable. In order to do so, ideal points estimated through Bayesian Item-Response models are employed, including some novel adaptations and the use of certain aspects of the model that have not often been used to analyse nominal voting patterns before. The hypotheses posited in the literature for being determinants of voting behaviour are systematically examined and tested, using methods either new to the ideal-point literature in Brazil or rarely used, leading to findings contrary to the majority of the literature on several points, and in accordance with other studies on others.
Title in Portuguese
Explicações das determinantes do comportamento legislativo em votações nominais no Congresso Brasileiro, com foco no Senado
Keywords in Portuguese
Política Externa
Política Legislativa brasileira
Resposta ao item Bayesiana
Abstract in Portuguese
Esta tese busca analisar as votações nominais no Congresso brasileiro, particularmente o Senado Federal e com foco nos temas de política externa. A análise de política externa por meio de votação nominal tem sido limitada à Câmara dos Deputados, e nesse sentido, o primeiro objetivo desta tese é ampliar a discussão para incluir o Senado, a casa mais poderosa em muitos aspectos, numa forma que é formalmente comparável. Portanto, pontos ideais estimados através de modelos Resposta ao Item Bayesiana são empregados, incluindo novas adaptações e a utilização de aspectos do modelo que não são frequentemente usados. As hipóteses da literatura das determinantes de comportamento em votações nominais são testadas sistematicamente, usando métodos que são ou novos à literatura de pontos ideais no Brasil ou pouco utilizados, resultando em constatações contrárias à maior parte da literatura em uns pontos, e de acordo com outros.
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