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Habilitation Thesis
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/T.12.2019.tde-09082019-090800
Document
Author
Full name
Eduardo Franco Luzio
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2019
Committee
Lucinda, Claudio Ribeiro de (President)
Kalatzis, Aquiles Elie Guimarães
Martini, Jose Sidnei Colombo
Nakaguma, Marcos Yamada
Santos, Edmilson Moutinho dos
Title in Portuguese
Os 50 tons de preto da OGX: reconstrução do histórico, reflexões & aprendizados possíveis
Keywords in Portuguese
Conglomerados
Governança corporativa
Heroína organizacional
Óleo e gás
Pré-sal
Principal agente
Recuperação judicial
Sobrevalorização
Abstract in Portuguese
Em junho de 2008, a combinação entre altos preços do petróleo e descobertas no présal com uma tese de investimentos atraente proporcionou o maior IPO de uma empresa pré-operacional da história da BOVESPA (R$ 6,7 bilhões). Com renomados executivos, membros do conselho de administração e acionista controlador, a campanha exploratória da OGX começou com muitas e significativas descobertas de hidrocarbonetos. Em outubro de 2010, ainda pré-operacional, a OGX mais que dobrou seu valor de mercado quando chegou a R$ 75,2 bilhões. A estratégia de financiamento, que captou R$ 15,6 bilhões em equity e quasi-equity, atraiu grandes investidores institucionais e gestores de recursos. Entretanto, momentos de sub e sobrevalorização da OGXP3 combinada com SOPs generosos e vestings de curto prazo geraram comportamentos disfuncionais dos executivos que viriam a comprometer a viabilidade da Empresa. Mas a análise da OGX não comporta conclusões ingênuas e maniqueístas. Há indícios que estes comportamentos foram corroborados pela ação, ou no mínimo complacência, de gatekeepers internos (acionista controlador e conselho de administração) e externos (analistas de sell-side, auditores e a CVM). Dentre estes comportamentos disfuncionais destaca-se a “Heroína Organizacional” e sua consequente assimetria informacional, que pode ter afetado direta e indiretamente outras empresas da EBX, cujas dívidas somavam R$ 24,9 bilhões (31/12/2012). As duas manifestações externas da Heroína Organizacional, inter-relacionadas, foram: a intensa campanha exploratória que consumiu R$ 13,8 bilhões em investimentos, perfurou 115 poços em 51 prospectos em 5 bacias; e o guidance otimista que incluiu a publicação de 110 Fatos Relevantes, quase todos otimistas, revisões nas estimativas de volumes recuperáveis de 4,8 para 10,9 bboe e aquisição de 29 novos blocos. Mas atrasos, percalços e “eventos de reputação” comprometeram a credibilidade dos executivos, acionista controlador e o valor da OGXP3. Em agosto de 2013, a produção média era de 10,7 kbpd contra a meta de 165,0 kbpd. Em outubro de 2013, a OGX solicitou sua Recuperação Judicial (“RJ”) com R$ 13,3 bilhões em dívidas com bondholders e fornecedores, dentre eles, a OSX. Dez dias depois foi a vez da OSX solicitar a RJ, com dívidas de R$ 4,1 bilhões. Por fim, o estudo identifica possíveis aprendizados e temas de pesquisas futuras que podem agregar na viabilidade de captações para financiar projetos greenfield em infraestrutura no Brasil
Title in English
OGX's 50 shades of black: reconstruction of the history, possible reflections & learning
Keywords in English
Bankruptcy
Conglomerates
Coporate governance
Oil & gas
Organizational heroin
Overvaluation
Pre-salt
Principal agent
Abstract in English
In June 2008, the combination of high oil prices and pre-salt discoveries with an attractive investment thesis provided the largest IPO of a greenfield company in BOVESPA's history (R$ 6.7 billion). With reputed executives, board of directors and controlling shareholder, OGX's exploratory campaign began with many significant hydrocarbon discoveries. In October 2010, still pre-operational, OGX more than doubled its market value to R$ 75.2 billion. The financing strategy, which raised R$ 15.6 billion in equity and quasi-equity, attracted large institutional investors, equity and debt funds. However, OGXP3 under and overvalue moments combined with generous SOPs and short-term vestings generated dysfunctional executives' behaviors that would compromise the Company's feasibility. But the OGX analysis does not admit naive and Manichaean conclusions. There are indications that these behaviors were corroborated by the action, or at least complacency, of internal gatekeepers (controlling shareholder and board of directors) and external (sell-side analysts, auditors and the CVM). Among these dysfunctional behaviors stands out the "Organizational Heroine" and its consequent informational asymmetry, which may have directly and indirectly affected other EBX companies, whose debts added to R$ 24.9 billion (12/31/2012). The two external manifestations of the Organizational Heroine, interrelated, were: the intense exploratory campaign that consumed R$ 13.8 billion in investments, drilled 115 wells in 51 prospects in 5 basins; and the optimistic guidance, which included the publishing of 110 Material Facts, almost all optimistic, revisions in recoverable volume estimates from 4.8 to 10.9 bboe and the acquisition of 29 new blocks. But delays, setbacks, and "reputation events" have compromised the credibility of executives, the controlling shareholder, and the value of OGXP3. In August 2013, average production was 10.7 kbpd versus the target of 165.0 kbpd. In October 2013, OGX requested bankruptcy protection with R$ 13.3 billion in debts with bondholders and suppliers, OSX among them. Ten days later it was OSX's turn to request Judicial Recovery, with debts of R$ 4.1 billion. Finally, the study identifies possible lessons and future research topics that may contribute to raise funds to finance greenfield infrastructure projects in Brazil
 
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eluzio.pdf (7.41 Mbytes)
Publishing Date
2019-08-09
 
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