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Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.96.2016.tde-31032016-144116
Document
Author
Full name
Marcos Hitoshi Endo
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
Ribeirão Preto, 2015
Supervisor
Committee
Gomes, Fabio Augusto Reis (President)
Laurini, Marcio Poletti
Saiani, Carlos Cesar Santejo
Silva, Cleomar Gomes da
Title in Portuguese
Modelo estrutural do consumo e instabilidade de parâmetros 
Keywords in Portuguese
Consumo
Crédito
Quebras Estruturais
Teoria da Renda-Permanente
Abstract in Portuguese
De acordo com o trabalho de Brady (2008), mudanças estruturais na economia norte-americana que permitiram um aumento do crédito ao consumidor teriam tornado a suavização do consumo uma realidade. No entanto, ele estima um modelo de consumo levando em conta quebras estruturais encontradas nas séries do crescimento das variáveis, o que não implica, necessariamente, que essas quebras também estão presentes no modelo de consumo. Neste trabalho, utilizamos uma metodologia que permite a presença de regressores endógenos na equação de teste e procuramos as quebras diretamente no modelo de consumo. Os resultados indicam que o procedimento adotado por Brady (2008) não e adequado para determinar as datas das quebras do modelo de consumo.
Title in English
Consumption's Structural Model and Parameter Instability
Keywords in English
Consumption
Credit
Permanent Income Hypotesis
Structural Breaks
Abstract in English
According to Brady (2008), structural changes in the American economy that allowed an expansion of the consumer credit would have made consumption smoothing a reality. However, he estimates a model of consumption based on structural breaks found in the consumption and credit growth rates, which doesn't imply, necessarily, that those breaks are also present in the consumption's model. In this work, we use a methodology that is able to _nd multiple breaks when the regressors are endogenous and search the breaks directly in the consumption's model. Our results indicate that imposing the breaks as Brady (2008) did is not adequate to determine the break dates in the consumption's model.
 
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Publishing Date
2016-04-19
 
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