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Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.96.2018.tde-02082018-160351
Document
Author
Full name
Rodolfo Chiabai Moura
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
Ribeirão Preto, 2018
Supervisor
Committee
Laurini, Marcio Poletti (President)
Aiube, Fernando Antonio Lucena
Gomes, Fabio Augusto Reis
Hotta, Luiz Koodi
Title in English
Spillovers and jumps in global markets: a comparative analysis
Keywords in English
Bayesian estimation
Common factor
Jumps
Multivariate stochastic volatility
Abstract in English
We analyze the relation between volatility spillovers and jumps in financial markets. For this, we compared the volatility spillover index proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) with a global volatility component, estimated through a multivariate stochastic volatility model with jumps in the mean and in the conditional volatility. This model allows a direct dating of events that alter the global volatility structure, based on a permanent/transitory decomposition in the structure of returns and volatilities, and also the estimation of market risk measures. We conclude that the multivariate stochastic volatility model solves some limitations in the spillover index and can be a useful tool in measuring and managing risk in global financial markets.
Title in Portuguese
Saltos e Spillovers nos mercados globais: uma análise comparativa
Keywords in Portuguese
Estimação Bayesiana
Fator comum
Saltos
Volatilidade estocástica multivariada
Abstract in Portuguese
Analisamos a relação existente entre spillovers e saltos na volatilidade nos mercados financeiros. Para isso, comparamos o índice de spillover de volatilidade proposto por Diebold and Yilmaz (2009), com um componente de volatilidade global, estimado através de um modelo multivariado de volatilidade estocástica com saltos na média e na volatilidade condicional. Este modelo permite uma datação direta dos eventos que alteram a estrutura de volatilidade global, baseando-se na decomposição das estruturas de retorno e volatilidade entre efeitos permanentes/transitórios, como também a estimação de medidas de risco de mercado. Concluímos que este modelo resolve algumas das limitações do índice de spillover além de fornecer um método prático para mensurar e administrar o risco nos mercados financeiros globais.
 
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Publishing Date
2018-09-18
 
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