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Doctoral Thesis
DOI
10.11606/T.8.2018.tde-11072018-122743
Document
Author
Full name
Apoena Canuto Cosenza
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2018
Supervisor
Committee
Barbosa, Wilson do Nascimento (President)
Máo Junior, José Rodrigues
Queiroz, Francisco Assis de
Schincariol, Vitor Eduardo
Secco, Lincoln Ferreira
Title in Portuguese
Calibã se liberta: o setor externo da economia brasileira (1999 a 2013)
Keywords in Portuguese
Comércio internacional
História contemporânea do Brasil
História econômica do Brasil
Macroeconomia
Setor externo
Abstract in Portuguese
A presente tese possui como questão central: quais foram os mecanismos que permitiram a recuperação econômica ocorrida no Brasil, entre 2003 e 2010? A hipótese proposta é que a recuperação aparente da economia local foi resultado da alta dos preços dos bens primários (as chamadas commodities). Para verificação da hipótese, foi analisado o balanço de pagamentos brasileiro, dando-se destaque especial para o balanço comercial. Estudou-se a composição do balanço, e a relação entre o setor externo e alguns dos indicadores macroeconômicos da atividade econômica local. Ainda, verificou-se qual foi a relação entre o desempenho brasileiro no comércio internacional e a distribuição de renda local. Os dados encontrados indicam que tanto a aparente recuperação econômica quanto a distribuição de renda favorável às camadas de menor rendimento se fizeram possíveis graças à alta da demanda chinesa pelas commodities. No entanto, a recuperação econômica não foi acompanhada de investimentos produtivos significativos, o que resultou no não aumento da produtividade local. A tese proposta é que, na ausência de investimentos significativos, os problemas estruturais da economia brasileira, em especial a dependência econômica e a baixa capacidade de acumulação de capital, não foram superados, e até se aprofundaram.
Title in English
Caliban liberates itself: the external sector of brazilian economy (1999 to 2013)
Keywords in English
Brazilian economic history
Brazilian modern history
External sector
International trade
Macroeconomics
Abstract in English
The present thesis has the following central question: what were the mechanisms that allowed to the economic recovery occurred in Brazil between 2003 and 2010? The hypothesis proposed is that the recovery of the local economy was a result of the rise of commodities prices. To verify this hypothesis, the brazilian balance of payments was analyzed, with special emphasis on the trade balance. The composition of the balance of payments and the relationship between the external sector and some of the macroeconomic indicators of local economic activity were studied. The relation between the Brazilian performance in international trade and the distribution of local income was also analyzed. The data found indicates that both the economic recovery and the income distribution favorable to lower income population were made possible by the rise in chinese demand for commodities. However, the economic recovery was not followed by significant productive investments, which resulted in no increases in local productivity. The thesis proposed here is that, in the absence of significant investments, the structural problems of brazilian economy, especially the economic dependence and the low capital accumulation capacity, were not overcomen but actually increased.
 
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Publishing Date
2018-07-11
 
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