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Master's Dissertation
DOI
10.11606/D.8.2011.tde-15082012-114934
Document
Author
Full name
Danilo Alves Mendes Freire
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2011
Supervisor
Committee
Veiga, João Paulo Candia (President)
Villa, Rafael Antonio Duarte
Zimerman, Artur
Title in Portuguese
Entre urnas e armas: a competitividade do Poder Executivo e as Guerras Civis, 1976 - 2000
Keywords in Portuguese
Eleições
Guerras civis
Poder executivo
Regimes políticos
Abstract in Portuguese
A guerra civil é a forma de violência coletiva mais importante de nossa época. Embora pesquisas recentes tenham apontado alguns elementos como determinantes das guerras civis, a influência dos fatores políticos nos conflitos internos ainda é controversa. O presente estudo analisa, por meio de regressão estatística, a relação entre a competitividade do poder executivo e a incidência de guerras civis de 1976 a 2000. Os achados indicam que tanto eleições com candidatos únicos como votações multipartidárias reduzem a incidência de guerras civis. Ademais, os resultados dão apoio às hipóteses levantadas pela literatura recente de que terreno montanhoso, grande população, sistema políticos centralizados e a existência de conflitos anteriores aumentam significativamente o risco de incidência de guerras civis
Title in English
Between Ballot Boxes and Guns: Competitiveness of Executive Branch and Civil Wars, 1976-2000
Keywords in English
Civil wars
Elections
Executive branch
Political regimes
Abstract in English
Civil War is the most important form of collective violence of our time. Although recent research has yielded some determining elements to civil war, the influence of political factors on internal conflicts remains disputed. This study analyzes, by means of statistics regression, the correlation between the competitiveness in the Executive Branch and the incidence of civil war from 1976 to 2000. The findings indicate that both single-candidate and multi-party elections reduce the incidence of civil war. Furthermore, the results lend support to the hypotheses put forward by recent literature that mountainous terrain, large population, centralized political system, and the existence of former conflicts significantly heighten the risk of incidence of civil war
 
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Publishing Date
2012-08-15
 
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