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Doctoral Thesis
DOI
10.11606/T.8.2007.tde-12022008-114302
Document
Author
Full name
José Paulo Martins Junior
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2007
Supervisor
Committee
Kinzo, Maria D Alva Gil (President)
Carreirão, Yan de Souza
Limongi, Fernando de Magalhaes Papaterra
Meneguello, Rachel
Singer, Andre Vitor
Title in Portuguese
A disputa entre PSDB e PT nas eleições presidenciais - 1994-2006
Keywords in Portuguese
Avaliação
Eleições presidenciais
Ideologia
Partidos políticos
Problemas
Qualidades
Abstract in Portuguese
Esta tese de doutoramento trata da disputa entre o PSDB e o PT nas eleições presidenciais ocorridas no Brasil entre 1994 e 2006. O objetivo principal é identificar quais são as variáveis que estão associadas ao voto nos dois partidos que nos permitem prever com alguma precisão as chances de voto em cada um deles. A análise será procedida com auxílio de bancos de dados representativos dos eleitores brasileiros. São observadas diversas variáveis, classificadas em dois grupos: no primeiro estão as variáveis relacionadas a aspectos de longo prazo que incidem sobre o comportamento eleitoral, as características demográficas, sócio-econômicas e político-ideológicas dos eleitores, no segundo estão as variáveis ligadas diretamente ao processo eleitoral, as avaliações dos governos e dos candidatos. A hipótese mais importante a ser testada é que as variáveis de curto prazo têm impacto muito maior sobre as chances de voto nos partidos do que as variáveis de longo prazo. Isso indica que o contexto eleitoral afeta mais o resultado das eleições presidenciais do que qualquer aspecto estrutural, seja social, econômico ou político. Os resultados obtidos com a utilização de regressões logísticas corroboram a hipótese e apontam para diferenças importantes entre o voto no PSDB e no PT.
Title in English
The dispute between the PSDB and PT for presidential elections ran - 1994-2006
Keywords in English
Evaluation
Ideology
Political parties
Presidential elections
Problems
Qualities
Abstract in English
This Ph.D. thesis is about the dispute between the PSDB and PT for presidential elections ran in Brazil between 1994 e 2006. Its main objective is to identify the variables linked to votes given for both parties which would lead us to predict under a certain precision degree the chances each one has against other. The analysis is based on relevant databases from brazilian electoral activities. Several variables were observed and separated in two different groups: the first contains the ones related to long term aspects linked to the voters behavior as well as demographics, socio-economic, and political-ideological variables, while the second one contains the variables directly linked to the electoral process, to candidates evaluations and the country issues. The most important hypothesis to be tested is the one of short term variables making a bigger impact over each party vote chance when compared to the long term ones. Considering the hypothesis valuable, this presents the scenary of the electoral context with a bigger effect over presidential election than any other voter structural aspect either social, economic or political. The given result corroborates with the hypothesis and came from logistics regressions, pointing out relevant differences between votes given in favour of PSDB and PT.
 
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Publishing Date
2008-02-21
 
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