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Doctoral Thesis
DOI
10.11606/T.8.2010.tde-05052010-140037
Document
Author
Full name
Gabriel Cepaluni
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2010
Supervisor
Committee
Oliveira, Amâncio Jorge Silva Nunes de (President)
Lins, Maria Antonieta Del Tedesco
Onuki, Janina
Ricci, Paolo
Schor, Adriana
Title in Portuguese
Determinantes do sucesso e fracasso das coalizões internacionais nas negociações da Organização Mundial de Comércio (OMC)
Keywords in Portuguese
Abertura Comercial
Coalizões Internacionais
GATT/OMC
Meta-análise
Negociações
Abstract in Portuguese
O principal objetivo deste trabalho é entender como coalizões de países em desenvolvimento são bem-sucedidas nas negociações do GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) e da Organização Mundial de Comércio (OMC). Normalmente, sustenta-se que coalizões temáticas são mais bem-sucedidas do que grupos abrangentes (Higgot e Cooper, 1990; Cooper, Higgot e Nossal, 1990); e que coalizões com maiores recursos de poder são mais bem-sucedidas do que grupos fracos (Narlikar, 2003). Como hipótese alternativa, sugerimos que quanto maior for o grau de abertura comercial da coalizão - ((exportações+importações)/PIB) - maior será a chance de elas serem bemsucedidas nas negociações do GATT/OMC. Utilizaremos uma abordagem multimétodos (qualitativa e quantitativa) para realizar nossa pesquisa. Analisaremos um número (N) médio (entre 28 a 39 casos) de coalizões internacionais para descobrir quais as principais causas dos sucessos e fracassos destes grupos de países. Codificaremos a variável dependente (sucesso versus fracasso) conforme as descrições de casos particulares conduzidos por pesquisadores independentes. A variável independente categórica (coalizões temáticas versus abrangentes) será mensurada segundo procedimento semelhante. Por fim, o PIB agregado das coalizões (nossa medida de poder) e a abertura comercial agregada e abertura comercial média das coalizões (nossas medidas de abertura comercial) foram coletadas na base de dados Penn World Table 6.2. Os trabalhos que conhecemos sobre o tema utilizam a abordagem qualitativa de maneira pura, especialmente estudos de casso. Assim, até onde sabemos, este trabalho realizará a primeira análise estatística sobre o tema.
Title in English
Determinants of success and failure of the international coalitions in the negotiations of the World Trade Organization (WTO)
Keywords in English
GATT / WTO
International coalitions
International negotiations
Meta-analysis
Trade openness
Abstract in English
The main goal of this study is to understand how developing country coalitions obtain benefits in the GATT/WTO negotiations. Usually it is argued that issue-based coalitions are more successful than broad-based groups (Higgot and Cooper, 1990; Cooper, Higgot and Nossal, 1990), and that powerful coalitions are more successful than weaker ones (Narlikar, 2003). Alternatively, we suggest that the greater the degree of trade openness - ((exports+imports)/GDP) - the greater the chance that they will succeed in the GATT/WTO negotiations. We use a mix-method approach (qualitative and quantitative) to conduct our research. We will analyze a medium-N (from 28 to 39) cases of international coalitions to find out the main causes of coalitions' successes and failures. We will code our dependent variable (success versus failure) according to cases studies conducted by independent researchers. Our categorical independent variable (issue-based versus broad-based coalitions) will be measured adopting the same procedure. Finally, aggregate GDP - our measure of power -, aggregate trade openness and mean aggregate trade openness of the coalitions - our measures of trade openness - were collected in the Penn World Table 6.2. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first statistical analysis on the subject.
 
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2010_GabrielCepaluni.pdf (658.25 Kbytes)
Publishing Date
2010-05-06
 
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