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Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.45.2009.tde-07072009-155327
Document
Author
Full name
Rodrigo Viana Rocha
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2009
Supervisor
Committee
Wechsler, Sergio (President)
García, Jesús Enrique
Peixoto, Claudia Monteiro
Title in Portuguese
A lei fraca de Feller para jogos de São Petersburgo
Keywords in Portuguese
lei dos grandes números
paradoxo de São Petersburgo
utilidade
Abstract in Portuguese
Quase três séculos já se passaram desde que a primeira versão do chamado paradoxo de São Petersburgo chegou aos meios acadêmicos através do trabalho de Daniel Bernoulli. Contudo, a relevância desse assunto ainda reverbera em artigos científicos atuais em diversas áreas do conhecimento (notadamente, mas não exclusivamente, na Economia e na Estatística). Um jogo de enunciado simples cuja esperança matemática dos ganhos do jogador surpreendentemente é infinita, entretanto, dificilmente alguém estaria disposto a pagar qualquer taxa de entrada cobrada para jogá-lo. No presente trabalho buscou-se em primeiro lugar apresentar uma análise crítica do desenvolvimento histórico das "soluções" propostas para o paradoxo. Em seguida mostrou-se uma aplicação direta do paradoxo a um modelo matemático utilizado até hoje para avaliar o preço justo de ações. Por fim, revisaram-se alguns resultados obtidos pela moderna teoria da probabilidade através da convergência em probabilidade.
Title in English
Feller's weak law applied to St. Petersburg games
Keywords in English
law of large numbers
St. Petersburg paradox
utility
Abstract in English
It has been almost three centuries since the first version of the so-called St. Petersburg Paradox has reached the academic environment through the work of Daniel Bernoulli. However, the relevance of this subject still reverberates in new scientific papers in many knowledge fields (especially, but not exclusively, in Economics and Statistics). A game with a simple rule in which the mathematical expectation of the player's gains is unexpectedly infinite but hardly someone would be willing to pay any asked entrance fee to play it. In this work we pursued at first to present a critical analysis on the historical development of the proposed "solutions" to the paradox. After that, we showed an application of the paradox to a mathematical model, that is still in use today, to obtain a fair price of a stock share. At last we reviewed some results given by the modern probability theory through the convergence in probability.
 
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MSc_Rocha_Rodrigo.pdf (310.07 Kbytes)
Publishing Date
2009-08-25
 
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