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Doctoral Thesis
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/T.45.2017.tde-19072017-143031
Document
Author
Full name
Rogério de Assis Medeiros
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2017
Supervisor
Committee
Vicente, Renato (President)
Dreifus, Henrique Von
Ferreira, Fernando Fagundes
Martins, Andre Cavalcanti Rocha
Siqueira, Jose de Oliveira
Title in Portuguese
Modelos de apreçamento com influência social
Keywords in Portuguese
Aversão ao risco
CAPM
Finanças comportamentais
Funções de utilidade
Influência social
Abstract in Portuguese
Nesta tese desenvolvemos modelos de apreçamento de ativos financeiros baseados no conceito de influência social, analisamos também algumas das consequências destes modelos e comparamos com os modelos correspondentes clássicos. Por meio das funções de utilidade generalizadas exponencial e quadrática, deduzimos o CAPM com influência social. Obtivemos que o coeficiente beta da fórmula do CAPM depende de uma aversão ao risco efetiva do mercado que depende da distribuição de riqueza dos agentes do mercado. Supondo que distribuição de riqueza dos agentes do mercado segue uma distribuição de Pareto, fomos capazes de conectar, aversão ao risco média efetiva do mercado, volatilidade e distribuição de riqueza dos agentes, estabelecendo a previsão empírica de que a volatilidade aumenta com a concentração da distribuição de riqueza dos agentes do mercado, a qual foi corroborada por meio de análise estatística. Através da função generalizada tipo potência são feitas algumas considerações sobre alguns "puzzles" econômicos bem conhecidos (o "Equity Premium Puzzle" e o "Riskfree Rate Puzzle") que mostram que a modelagem da influência social pode ter impacto no esclarecimento destes "puzzles".
Title in English
Pricing models with social influence
Keywords in English
Behavioral finance
CAPM
Risk aversion
Social influence
Utility functions
Abstract in English
In this thesis we develop pricing models for financial assets based in the concept of social influence, we analyze too some of consequences of this models and we compare with the corresponding classical models. By means of the exponential and quadratic generalized utility functions, we deduce the CAPM with social influence. We obtained that the coefficient beta from the formula of the CAPM depends of a market effective risk aversion that depends of the wealth distribution of the market agents. Supposing that the wealth distribution of the market agents follows a Pareto distribution, we were able to connect, market effective average risk aversion, volatility and wealth distribution of the agents, establishing the empirical forecasting that the volatility grows with the concentration of the wealth distribution of the market agents, which was corroborated by means of statistical analysis. Through the generalized power function are made some considerations about some economic puzzles well-known (the Equity Premium Puzzle and the Riskfree Rate Puzzle) that show us that the modeling of the social influence can to have impact in the clarification these puzzles.
 
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Publishing Date
2017-07-20
 
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