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Master's Dissertation
DOI
10.11606/D.45.2017.tde-13112017-113623
Document
Author
Full name
Laura Victoria Forero Vega
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2017
Supervisor
Committee
Oliva Filho, Sergio Muniz (President)
Massad, Eduardo
Santos, Fernando Luiz Pio dos
Title in Portuguese
Análise da dinâmica de uma rede para a dengue
Keywords in Portuguese
Caminhos mais prováveis
Dengue no Brasil
Distância efetiva
Modelagem epidemiológica
Redes
Abstract in Portuguese
Na modelagem epidemiológica é importante descrever situações da vida real, neste caso baseados no artigo (Brockmann; Helbing, 2013) apresentamos um modelo da dinâmica da propagação de uma doença infecciosa numa população que está divida em regiões e entre alguma delas existe mobilidade, representados por uma rede. Com o fim de saber se dada uma origem em quanto tempo e quantos casos são esperados nas outras regiões, expomos a definição da distância efetiva e consequentemente os caminhos mais prováveis dependente da mobilidade que respondem as questões. A dengue é uma doença infecciosa que vem sendo uma preocupação no mundo, particularmente no Brasil é um problema de saúde pública. No ano 2012 o estado de Rio de Janeiro reportou 13 cidades com maior incidência nas quais 7 delas estão correlacionadas, porém não é estabelecido como foi a mobilidade para ter estes resultados. Nós propomos aplicamos o modelo mencionado, obtendo as probabilidades das viagens entre estas cidades.
Title in English
Analysis of the dynamics of a network for dengue
Keywords in English
Dengue in Brazil
Effective distance
Epidemic modeling
More probable paths
Networks
Abstract in English
In epidemiological modeling it is important to describe real-life situations, in this case based on the article (\cite) we present a model of the dynamics of the spread of an infectious disease in a population that is divided into regions and between some of them there is mobility, represented by a network In order to know if given an origin in how long and how many cases are expected in the other regions, we present the definition of the effective distance and consequently the most likely paths depending on the mobility that answer the questions. Dengue is an infectious disease that has been a concern in the world, particularly in Brazil is a problem of public health. In the year $ 2012 $ the state of Rio de Janeiro reported 13 cities with higher incidence in which $ 7$ of them are correlated, but it is not established how mobility was to have these results. We propose apply the mentioned model, obtaining the probabilities of travel between these cities.
 
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Disertacao_Lau.pdf (3.03 Mbytes)
Publishing Date
2017-11-16
 
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