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Doctoral Thesis
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/T.3.2008.tde-18082009-145345
Document
Author
Full name
Daniel Kikuti
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2008
Supervisor
Committee
Cozman, Fabio Gagliardi (President)
Barros, Leliane Nunes de
Maruyama, Newton
Rêgo, Leandro Chaves
Rocha, José Carlos Ferreira da
Title in Portuguese
Tomada de decisão sequencial com preferências parcialmente ordenadas.
Keywords in Portuguese
Critérios de escolha
Incerteza
Preferências parcialmente ordenadas
Probabilidades imprecisas
Tomada de decisão
Abstract in Portuguese
Nesta tese, exploramos tomada de decisão com preferências parcialmente ordenadas: dadas duas ações, o indivíduo pode preferir uma ação a outra, julgá-las equivalentes, ou julgá-las incomparáveis. Tais preferências são originárias da incerteza sobre determinados estados do modelo de decisão e são reveladas pela imprecisão nos valores de probabilidade. Investigamos seis critérios de escolha de estratégias em problemas de decisão seqüenciais, representados por árvores de decisão e diagramas de influência, com probabilidades imprecisas: T-maximin, T-maximax, T-maximix, Dominação por Intervalos, Maximalidade e E-admissibilidade. Apresentamos novos algoritmos que geram estratégias para todos estes critérios. As principais contribuições deste trabalho estão na implementação dos algoritmos e na análise, sob o ponto de vista computacional, dos diversos critérios considerados como racionais em situações de incerteza representada por conjuntos de probabilidades.
Title in English
Sequential decision making with partially ordered preferences.
Keywords in English
Criteria of choice
Decision making
Imprecise probabilities
Partially ordered preferences
Uncertainty
Abstract in English
In this thesis we explore situations where preferences are partially ordered: given two acts, the agent may prefer one to another, or nd them to be equivalent, or nd them to be incomparable. Such preferences stem from the uncertainty associated to some states of the decisions model and are revealed by imprecision in probability values. We investigate six criteria for strategy selection in decision trees and inuence diagrams with imprecise probabilities: -maximin, -maximax, -maximix, Interval Dominance, Maximality and E-admissibility. We present new algorithms that generate strategies for all these criteria. The main contributions of this work are twofold: the implementation of these algorithms and the analysis, under the computational point of view, of the criteria considered ratio- nal in uncertain situations represented by set of probabilities.
 
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PMRedrev_DKIKUTI.doc (37.50 Kbytes)
tese.pdf (630.58 Kbytes)
Publishing Date
2009-09-25
 
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