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Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.3.2007.tde-17012008-114829
Document
Author
Full name
Luiz Henrique Polizel
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2007
Supervisor
Committee
Gouvêa, Marcos Roberto (President)
Garcia, Luís Antonio Villaça de
Pelegrini, Marcelo Aparecido
Title in Portuguese
Metodologia de prospecção e avaliação de pré-viabilidade expedita de geração distribuída (GD): caso eólico e hidraúlico.
Keywords in Portuguese
Comercialização de energia elétrica
Fluxo de caixa
Fontes incentivadas
Geração distribuída
Pequena central hidrelétrica
Plantas eólicas
Potencial eólico e hidráulico
Projetos de investimentos
Abstract in Portuguese
Estudos convencionais de identificacao e de viabilidade de potenciais de producao de energia eletrica eolica e hidroeletrica de pequena escala demandam trabalhos de campo que, muitas vezes, implicam na inviabilidade economica do negocio em funcao dos seus onerosos custos. Alem disso, a execucao desses trabalhos nao assegura ao investidor a recuperacao desses onerosos recursos despendidos, principalmente se o potencial estudado apresentar inviabilidade tecnico-economica. Acrescenta-se ainda a esse risco, a possibilidade do investidorexecutor dos estudos iniciais (estimativa e inventario/viabilidade) nao contrair a outorga de exploracao do potencial, que e oferecida publicamente pelo Orgao Regulador. Entretanto, esse risco pode ser mitigado com a indicacao orientativa de viabilidade, com custos reduzidos. Por outro lado, ha uma forte tendencia de implantacao de pequenas centrais de producao de energia, caracterizadas como "Geracao Distribuida" (GD), em virtude dos atuais incentivos regulatorios para essas fontes, das recentes restricoes ambientais e da escassez de investimentos em grandes projetos. Neste contexto, esta dissertacao apresenta um modelo de obtencao de pre-viabilidade de potenciais fundamentado em caracteristicas tecnicas de componentes de Usinas Eolicas (EOL's) e Pequenas Centrais Hidreletricas (PCH's), com atributos fisicos geograficamente representados e consultados em um ambiente de geoprocessamento informatizado. Esse modelo proposto realiza estimativa de indicadores tecnico-economicos de centrais, produzindo estudos de pre-viabilidade com rapidez e baixo custo. De posse desse modelo o investidor pode simular a implementacao de varios aproveitamentos eolicos e hidroeletricos, antes de mobilizacao e de levantamentos de campo mais precisos e onerosos, obtendo dessa forma orientacoes importantes para direcionar sua atencao, com minimizacao de incertezas envolvidas na pre-viabilidade do potencial.
Title in English
Methodology of prospection and evaluation of pre-viability fast of ditributed generation (DG): eolic and hydraulic case.
Keywords in English
Alternative resources
Cash flow
Distributed generation (DG)
Investments projects
Small hydroelectric plants (SHP's)
Wind power
Abstract in English
Identification and viability studies on small scale production of electrical energy based on wind and hydro power conventionally demand onerous field work whose costs frequently imply economic unfeasibility of the business. Moreover, the execution of these works does not assure that the investor will recover its expended resources, mainly if the potential analysis of the business demonstrates its technical and economic unfeasibility. Additionally, there is the possibility of not contracting the concession to this potential exploration, which is publicly offered by the Regulatory Agency, by the investor-executor of the initial studies (estimative, inventory and viability). However, this risk can be mitigated by the guiding indication of viability, with reduced costs. On the other hand, it has one strong trend of implantation of smallscale power generation, characterized as "Distributed Generation" (DG), because of its current legal incentives and also because of the recent ecological restrictions and the scarcity of investments in large enterprises. In this context, this work presents a pre-viability of potentials attainment model based on technical characteristics of Wind Plants and Small Hydroelectric Plants (SHP's) components, whose physical attributes are geographically represented and consulted in a geographic information system. The proposed model estimates the technical and economical pointers of power plants, producing fast and low-cost studies of pre-viability. Trough this model the investor can simulate wind power and hydropower exploration before mobilizating onerous and accurate field researches, getting an important guiding to its priorities, minimizing uncertainties in the process.
 
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anexo_A_polizel.pdf (70.03 Kbytes)
ANEXO_B_polizel.pdf (451.65 Kbytes)
ANEXO_C_polizel.pdf (132.83 Kbytes)
ANEXO_D_polizel.pdf (109.39 Kbytes)
ANEXO_E_polizel.pdf (263.37 Kbytes)
ANEXO_F_polizel.pdf (1.41 Mbytes)
Publishing Date
2008-02-29
 
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