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Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.12.2004.tde-04122005-115445
Document
Author
Full name
Andre Pires da Cruz
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2004
Supervisor
Committee
Martelanc, Roy (President)
Fama, Rubens
Teixeira, Rubens Janny
Title in Portuguese
Impactos de fatores condicionantes do volume de crédito
Keywords in Portuguese
Brasil
Crédito
Eficiência jurídica
Instabilidade econômica
Poupança
Taxa de juros real
Abstract in Portuguese
O fato de haver na economia brasileira um baixo volume de crédito ao setor privado, tornando mais difícil o acesso das empresas a financiamentos que lhes possibilitem aceitar projetos de investimentos que as faria maiores e mais lucrativas, desenvolvendo o setor empresarial e a sociedade como um todo, é a motivação deste trabalho que busca avaliar o impacto de três fatores específicos no nível de crédito ao setor privado existente em um país: (i) o nível de eficiência jurídica; (ii) o grau de instabilidade econômica; e (iii) o volume de poupança total. A importância de tais fatores é fundamentada na revisão da literatura e sua análise, através do uso de regressões simples e múltiplas do tipo cross-section envolvendo 207 países, confirmou em todas as especificações a hipótese de que quanto mais eficiente for o sistema jurídico de um país, maior será o volume de crédito nele disponível. O grau de instabilidade econômica e o nível de poupança se mostraram também fatores condicionantes do volume de crédito, mas não em todas as especificações e com um impacto menor ao verificado para o sistema jurídico. Estimativas mostraram que o volume de crédito ao setor privado no Brasil seria 43% superior ao observado caso houvesse uma melhoria de apenas meio desvio padrão nas medidas referentes às três variáveis independentes acima citadas. Fatores adicionais foram brevemente avaliados como o nível da taxa de juros real, o grau de participação nos fluxos internacionais de comércio e o nível de desenvolvimento. Esses fatores se mostraram também importantes e merecem estudos que os tenham como foco. Espera-se com este estudo contribuir para a compreensão do funcionamento do mercado de crédito e para a discussão a respeito de medidas e posturas que possam ser adotadas no Brasil e no mundo visando seu desenvolvimento, que se reflete no desenvolvimento das empresas e da sociedade.
Keywords in English
Brazil
Credit
Economic instability
Judicial efficiency
Real interest rate
Savings
Abstract in English
The fact that the Brazilian economy has a low volume of credit available to the private sector, making it difficult for the companies to have access to loans which would able them to accept investment projects and could make them larger and more profitable companies, developing the business sector and the society, is the motivation of this work that reaches to evaluate the impact of three specific factors in the credit volume existing in one country to the private sector: (i) the level of the legal system efficiency; (ii) the economic instability level; and (iii) the total volume of savings accounts. Those factors importance are based on the literature review and it’s analysis, by the use of simple and multiple cross-section regressions involving (two hundred and seven) 207 countries, have confirmed in all of the specifications that as more efficient is its legal system, higher will be the volume of credit available in such country. The economic instability level and the total volume of savings accounts have showed also to be factors related to the credit volume, but not in all specifications and with a lower impact compared to the impact verified by the legal system. Estimations have showed that the credit volume to the private sector in Brazil would be 43% higher than the actual in case an improvement of only half standard deviation in the measures referred to the 3 independent variables above mentioned. Additional factors were also briefly evaluated, like the real interest rate level, the participation on the international trade flow and the development level. Such factors have also showed importance and do deserve studies of their own. It is a purpose of this study to contribute for the understanding of the credit market and its performance and for the discussion of measures and postures, which could be adopted in Brazil and in the world objecting its development that reflects on the companies and the society development.
 
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Publishing Date
2005-12-22
 
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