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Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.12.2007.tde-30012008-104913
Document
Author
Full name
Fernando Roberto Fenolio
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2007
Supervisor
Committee
Gonçalves, Carlos Eduardo Soares (President)
Nakane, Marcio Issao
Silva, Marcelo Leite de Moura e
Title in Portuguese
Ciclos eleitorais e política monetária: evidências para o Brasil
Keywords in Portuguese
Econometria
Economia política
Política monetária
Abstract in Portuguese
O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a influência do calendário eleitoral sobre a condução da política monetária no Brasil. Através de uma regra de Taylor expandida com variáveis eleitorais, investigamos se o Banco Central atuou com objetivos políticos nas eleições do período pós-flutuação cambial. Os resultados obtidos mostram não haver evidências de que a taxa Selic tenha sido manipulada com fins eleitoreiros, o que está em linha com a evidência internacional atestando ausência de ciclos políticos na política monetária. Este achado acaba reforçando também a percepção de que o Banco Central do Brasil tem desfrutado de verdadeira independência de instrumentos nos últimos anos.
Title in English
Political business cycles and monetary policy: evidences for Brazil
Keywords in English
Monetary policy
Political business
Abstract in English
This paper investigates whether the management of monetary policy in Brazil has been affected by the electoral cycle. Based on the estimation of a Taylor Rule expanded with political variables, it is possible to check if the Central Bank's decisions were at least partially guided by electoral considerations in the period following the abandonment of the pegged regime. The results suggest that the Selic rate was not influenced by elections, which is in line with international evidence showing the absence of monetary policy political cycles in a cross section of countries. Further, this finding reinforces the perception that the Brazilian Central Bank has enjoyed a true instrument-independent status in the recent period.
 
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FernandoFenolio.pdf (277.44 Kbytes)
Publishing Date
2008-02-07
 
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