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Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.12.2014.tde-29092014-165855
Document
Author
Full name
Maurício Massao Soares Matsumoto
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2014
Supervisor
Committee
Madeira, Gabriel de Abreu (President)
Barbosa, Klenio de Souza
Lima, Rafael Coutinho Costa
Title in English
Dynamic moral hazard with learning about the production function
Keywords in English
Contracts
Incentives
Learning
Linear programming
Abstract in English
In this work we propose a flexible numerical approach to deal with models of dynamic moral hazard with simultaneous learning about the production function. Because of the complexity of the problem, analytical solutions have so far been limited in scope. The contribution is methodological: through computation, the problem can be studied under few assumptions about functional forms. We depart from a general mechanism, reformulate it as an incentive compatible mechanism, and show how it can be solved by backward induction through a sequence of linear programs. We apply our method to a few cases of interest, and confirm that uncertainty about the production function increases the volatility of the agent's utility in order to prevent belief manipulation, as found in the literature.
Title in Portuguese
Risco moral dinâmico com aprendizado sobre a função de produção
Keywords in Portuguese
Aprendizagem
Contratos
Incentivos
Programação linear
Abstract in Portuguese
Neste trabalho, propomos uma estratégia numérica para lidar com modelos de risco moral dinâmico com aprendizado sobre a função de produção. Pela complexidade do problema, soluções analíticas na literatura têm sido limitadas em seu escopo. Nossa contribuição é metodológica: através de métodos computacionais, o problema pode ser estudado sob poucas hipóteses a respeito de formas funcionais. Partindo de um mecanismo geral, reformulamos o problema como um mecanismo compatível em incentivos, e então mostramos como este pode ser resolvido por indução retroativa por meio de uma sequência de programas lineares. Aplicamos o método a alguns casos de interesse, e confirmamos a conclusão da literatura de que a incerteza sobre a função de produção aumenta a volatilidade da utilidade do agente para prevenir manipulação de crenças.
 
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Publishing Date
2014-10-02
 
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