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Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.12.2017.tde-18102017-145419
Document
Author
Full name
Júlia Burle Gonçalves
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2017
Supervisor
Committee
Carvalho, Laura Barbosa de (President)
Barbosa Filho, Nelson Henrique
Freitas, Fabio Neves Perácio de
Lima, Gilberto Tadeu
Title in Portuguese
Distribuição de renda e demanda agregada no Brasil (1995-2013): uma análise a partir de extensões aos modelos neo-kaleckianos
Keywords in Portuguese
Distribuição pessoal
Economia brasileira
Endividamento
Modelo neo-Kaleckiano
Regime de demanda
Abstract in Portuguese
O arcabouço teórico neo-Kaleckiano parte da importância da demanda efetiva no processo de geração de renda para relacionar sua distribuição funcional - parcela da renda destinada a salários e lucros - à demanda agregada, e assim caracterizar o tipo de regime de demanda das economias, se wage-led (parcela de salários a afetando positivamente) ou profit-led (parcela de lucros a afetando positivamente). Contribuições posteriores propõem extensões ao modelo convencional que incluem o efeito de economia aberta, do crédito e da distribuição pessoal da renda sobre o tipo de regime característico. Partindo de tal arcabouço e da trajetória da economia brasileira nos anos 2000, esta dissertação busca avaliar empírica e teoricamente a relação entre distribuição funcional, distribuição intrasalarial e endividamento das famílias. No âmbito teórico, um modelo neo-Kaleckiano que avalia relação dinâmica de longo prazo entre dívida e distribuição é desenvolvido. No âmbito empírico, a relação entre distribuição funcional e demanda efetiva para economia brasileira no período 1995 a 2013 é analisada, mas considerando o impacto de variáveis ausentes do modelo seminal, que foram abordadas no modelo teórico apresentado, e que parecem relevantes para explicar o desempenho da economia brasileira no período - crédito, distribuição intrasalrial e preço das commodities. Resultados sugerem que o controle para estas variáveis de fato alteram o efeito da distribuição funcional sobre a demanda agregada e vice versa.
Title in English
Aggregate demand and income distribution in Brazil (1995-2013): an analysis through extensions of the neo-Kaleckian model
Keywords in English
Brazilian economy
Demand regimes
Householddebt
Neo-Kaleckian model
Personal distribution of income
Abstract in English
The neo-Kaleckian theoretical framework focuses on the importance of effective demand in the income generation process in order to relate its functional distribution - share of income that goes to wage and profits - to aggregate demand, and thus characterize the demand regime that leads it, either wage-led (wage share positively affecting demand or profit led (profit share positively affecting de-mand). Recent contributions include extensions to the standard model such as the open economy effect, household debt, and personal distribution of income to further characterize the regime type. Departing from that approach and from Brazilian Economy's performance on the 2000s, this thesis aims to empirically e theoreticallyanalyze the relationship between functional distribution, wage distribution and household debt. In the theoretical ground, a neo-Kaleckian model in which long term relationships between wage heterogeneity and household debt is developed and analyzed. In the empirical ground, the relationship between functional distribution of income and aggregate demand is analyzed for the Brazilian Economy in the period 1995-2013, but testing whether variables that are not present in the seminal model that seem to affect the Brazilian economy in the 2000s - household debt, personal distribution of income and commodity prices - alter the relationship between the two variables. Our results suggest that the control for those aspects indeed change the intercept and inclination of our demand and distributive curves.
 
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CorrigidoJulia.pdf (1.60 Mbytes)
Publishing Date
2017-11-13
 
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