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Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.12.2012.tde-05032013-205441
Document
Author
Full name
Rafael Ferreira Neves
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2012
Supervisor
Committee
Rangel, Marcos de Almeida (President)
Madeira, Gabriel de Abreu
Ponczek, Vladimir Pinheiro
Title in Portuguese
Efeitos da expansão do crédito consignado ao setor privado no consumo dos domicílios brasileiros
Keywords in Portuguese
Crédito consignado
Instituto Nacional do Seguro Seguro Social
Microeconomia
Abstract in Portuguese
Neste trabalho estudamos empiricamente o efeito sobre as decisões de consumo e poupança de um choque exógeno (positivo) na capacidade de comprometimento de mutuários com o pagamento de empréstimos. Exploramos uma variação quasi-experimental induzida por uma lei federal que estendeu o direito de efetuar operações com desconto em folha a trabalhadores celetistas e beneficiários de aposentadoria e pensão do setor privado ("Lei do Crédito Consignado"). Nossos resultados indicam que os domicílios com aposentados ou pensionistas parecem ter reduzido os gastos com alimentação e aumentado os gastos com serviços de utilidade pública, bens duráveis, insumos produtivos e pequenas reformas. Além disso, indicam um aumento na utilização do sistema financeiro e uma queda na probabilidade de atrasos no pagamento de prestações de bens e serviços. Encontramos também que os efeitos parecem depender da escolaridade dos responsáveis pelo domicílio. A análise circunscrita apenas aos domicílios chefiados por casais, corroboram a análise geral, além de refutar a hipótese de income pooling. Ainda que interessantes, estes resultados devem ser vistos com cautela, já que, no período analisado, ocorreram eventos concomitantes que devem ter afetado as decisões de consumo domiciliares, e portanto, os padrões encontrados podem ser produto destes canais.
Title in English
Effects of the expansion of payroll lending to private sector on the Brazilian households consumption
Keywords in English
Microeconomics
Payroll lending
Social security system
Abstract in English
We empirically study the effects on consumption and saving decisions of an exogenous positive shock to the borrower's ability of commitment to loan payments. We explore a quasiexperimental variation induced by a Brazilian federal law that extended the payroll lending to workers, retirees and private sector pensioners. Our results suggest that households with retirees or pensioners have decreased their spending on food and increased spending on public services, durable goods, production inputs and home improvement. Also, the data shows an increase in the use of the financial system and a decrease in the likelihood of loan payment delays. We also found that the effects depend on the household heads' education. The analysis restricted to only those households headed by couples confirms previous results, and rejects the income pooling hypothesis. Although interesting, these results should be cautiously appraised given that, during the period under analysis, concurrent events may have affected household consumption decisions.
 
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Publishing Date
2013-03-13
 
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