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Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.12.2019.tde-04112019-165319
Document
Author
Full name
Luís Menon José
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2019
Supervisor
Committee
Dario, Alan de Genaro (President)
Carvalho, Antonio Gledson de
Sampaio, Joelson Oliveira
Santos, Jose Carlos de Souza
Title in Portuguese
Previsibilidade do mercado de debêntures no ní­vel da firma
Keywords in Portuguese
Debêntures
Liquidez
Regressão Pooled
Renda fixa
Abstract in Portuguese
Esta dissertação analisa o mercado secundário de debêntures brasileiro, em particular, como ele se relaciona com o mercado de títulos públicos e o acionário. Foi construída uma base de dados que cruza informações de debêntures e ações no nível da firma, assim como títulos públicos pelo vencimento, totalizando 2024 observações mensais entre 2012 e 2018. Os resultados mostram que a variação do yield da debênture pode ser explicada por: (I) variação do yield do título público; (II) retorno defasado da ação, sugerindo que existe um fluxo de informação do mercado acionário para mercado de títulos de renda fixa privados; e (III) a partir de 2018 com aumento do número de negócios, o retorno defasado da ação deixa de ter poder explicativo e, em seu lugar, o retorno contemporâneo passa a ser significativo, assim como outras variáveis do mercado tais quais o retorno do Índice Bovespa e os índices de volatilidade. Isso sugere que o mercado de debêntures se tornou mais dinâmico, incorporando mais rápido novas informações
Title in English
Predictability of the corporate bonds market at firm level
Keywords in English
Corporate bonds
Fixed income
Liquidity
Pooled regression
Abstract in English
This project analyzes the secondary market of Brazilian \textit{corporate bonds}, and how it relates to the bond market and the stock market. I built a database that crosses information from corporate bonds with stocks at the firm level as well as public bonds by maturity, totaling 2024 monthly observations between 2012 and 2018. The results show that the variation of the yield of the corporate bond can be explained by: (I) variation of the yield of the public bond; (II) for the lagged return of the stock, suggesting that there is a flow of information from the stock market to the bond market; and (iii) since 2018, with an increase in the number of trades, the lagged return loses its explanatory power. Instead, the contemporaneous return becomes significant, as well as other market variables such as the return of Bovespa index and the volatility indexes. This indicates that the corporate bond market became more dynamic, reacting to new information faster
 
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CorrigidoLuis.pdf (1.02 Mbytes)
Publishing Date
2019-11-06
 
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