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Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.11.2018.tde-20032018-122335
Document
Author
Full name
Abraão de Paula Taveira
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
Piracicaba, 2017
Supervisor
Committee
Lobos, Cristian Marcelo Villegas (President)
Godoy, Wesley Augusto Conde
Maia, Rafael Pimentel
Savian, Taciana Villela
Title in Portuguese
Uma modelagem estatística aplicada ao controle biológico da praga que ataca a cultura do algodão
Keywords in Portuguese
Análise de resíduos
Análise de sobrevivência
Modelos lineares generalizados
Seleção de modelos
Abstract in Portuguese
As distribuições de probabilidade gama, normal inversa, Weibull, log-normal e exponencial são uma boa alternativa para modelar observações associadas ao tempo, pois, em geral, a variável tempo possui assimetria à esquerda ou à direita, o que caracteriza as distribuições citadas anteriormente. O objetivo deste trabalho constitui-se em avaliar o comportamento dos predadores, Euborellia annulipes ("Tesourinha") e Harmonia axyridis ("Joaninha"), em relação à praga conhecida como Aphis gossypii ("Pulgão"). Outra pretensão deste trabalho é a aplicação da modelagem estatística, dando ênfase as técnicas dos modelos lineares generalizados e análise de sobrevivência, as quais foram aplicadas aos dados provenientes de um experimento, instalado no Laboratório de Ecologia de Insetos da Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz" (ESALQ). O experimento foi composto por 21 repetições, sendo cada repetição efetuada por meio de uma placa de Petri medido 60 X 15 mm. Em cada placa foi liberado um pulgão adulto áptero na parte central, tendo três pesquisadores responsáveis por observar a varável definida como tempo de ataque. Inicialmente, foram ajustados os modelos com distribuição gama e diferentes funções de ligação, e o modelo com a distribuição normal inversa com função de ligação canônica. Esses modelos foram ajustados aos dados desconsiderando as censuras, em que por meio do gráfico half-normal plot e testes de hipóteses, verificou que o modelo com a distribuição normal inversa com função de ligação canônica, apresentou o melhor ajuste. Posteriormente, foram ajustados os modelos exponencial, Weibull e log-normal para os dados considerando as censuras, os quais foram avaliados mediante o teste de razão de verossimilhança, sendo o modelo log-normal mais apropriado aos dados.
Title in English
An statistical model applied to the biological control of the pest that attacks the cotton crop
Keywords in English
Generalized linear models
Models selection
Residual analysis
Survival analysis
Abstract in English
The probability density function of gamma, inverse normal, Weibull, log-normal and exponential distributions are good alternatives for modelling observations related with time, since, in general, the time variable has left or right asymmetry, which characterizes the distributions previously mentioned . The aim of this work is the application of statistical modeling, emphasizing the techniques of generalized linear models and survival analysis, which were applied to data from an experiment, installed in the Laboratory of Insect Ecology of the "Luiz de Queiroz" College of Agriculture (ESALQ), in which the goal of this experiment was to evaluate the behavior of predators, Euborellia annulipes ("ring-legged earwig") and Harmonia axyridis ("Ladybird"), in relation to the pest known as Aphis. The experiment was composed of 21 replicates, each replicate being done by means of a petri dish measured 60 X 15 mm. On each plate an adult aphid was released in the central part, with three researchers responsible. The model with distribution was used to determine the variance, which was defined as the attack time. Normal distribution with canonical link function. These models were adjusted to the data disregarding censorship, in which through the half-normal plot and hypothesis tests, verified that the model with the normal inverse distribution with canonical link function, presented the best fit. Subsequently, the exponential, Weibull and log-normal models were adjusted for the data considering the censorship, which were evaluated by the likelihood ratio test, the log-normal model being more appropriate to the data.
 
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Publishing Date
2018-04-03
 
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