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Doctoral Thesis
DOI
10.11606/T.11.2005.tde-18052005-171543
Document
Author
Full name
Dione Fraga dos Santos
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
Piracicaba, 2004
Supervisor
Committee
Barros, Geraldo Sant Ana de Camargo (President)
Bacchi, Mirian Rumenos Piedade
Fontes, Rosa Maria Oliveira
Lima, Roberto Arruda de Souza
Miranda, Silvia Helena Galvao de
Title in Portuguese
Políticas macroeconômicas e seus efeitos sobre as importações de lácteos no Brasil.
Keywords in Portuguese
comércio agrícola
economia internacional
leite
política econômica
Abstract in Portuguese
Na década de 90 houve mudanças significativas no setor agroindustrial do leite no Brasil. Dentre elas destacam-se: i) a desregulamentação do rigoroso controle estatal após 46 anos (1945-1991); ii) o lançamento de novos produtos; iii) a entrada de multinacionais; iv) a criação do Mercado Comum do Cone Sul e v) a abertura comercial generalizada. O comércio mundial de lácteos tem a participação de poucos países, sendo os principais importadores e exportadores os países membros da Organização para Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico (OCDE). Países como o Brasil e a Índia possuem parcelas pouco expressivas do volume de comércio. O objetivo geral da pesquisa é analisar os fatores que têm influenciado as importações de lácteos pelo Brasil no período de 1991 a 2003. A metodologia empregada para medir os impactos das importações de leite nas variáveis macroeconômicas foi a de séries temporais. Incorporou-se uma análise gráfica a partir do diagrama back to back analisado por Barros (1987). E, ainda, utilizou-se a equação de excesso de demanda para definir a demanda por importação de leite. Concluiu-se que as variáveis: preço de importação de leite, taxa de câmbio real, PIB per capita e preço interno de leite são significativas e apresentam sinais coerentes com a teoria econômica. As elasticidades estimadas foram todas próximas ou superiores à unidade, revelando um mercado bastante dinâmico com ajustes rápidos a curto prazo. As elasticidades foram de magnitudes bem parecidas, sugerindo uma boa integração do segmento leiteiro ao mercado internacional. Vale salientar que as dummies incluídas para captar as variações de políticas econômicas como estabilização monetária e políticas anti-dumping não apresentaram efeitos significativos. É possível que seus efeitos tenham sido captados por outras variáveis incluídas no modelo.
Title in English
Macroeconomic Policies and their effects about milk imports in Brazil.
Keywords in English
agriculture trade
economic policy
foreign trade
milk
Abstract in English
During the decade of the 1990´s several significant changes took place in the milk agroindustry sector in Brazil: i) the sector was deregulated after 46 years of state control; ii) new milk products were created; iii) the market share of multinational enterprises increased; iv) the Common Market of the South (Mercosul) was created; v) the economy was opened through tariff reduction and deregulations. Only a few countries participate in the world milk trade. Major importers and exporters are members of OECD. The trade share of countries like Brazil and India in rather small. The general objective of this study is to analyze the factors that influenced the imports of milk by Brazil during the period 1991 to 2003. The milk imports market is analysed through "back to back" graphic system such that Brazil imports demand faces the world export supply. These two functions are then estimated. The variables dollar price of imported milk, real exchange rate, per capita GDP an domestic price of milk presented significant coefficient with sign coherent to economic theory. Estimated elasticities were all close to or higher than one, revealing a quite dynamic market with short term fast a adjustments. The magnitudes of the elasticities were very similar, suggesting a good integration of the milk sector to the international market. It should be pointed out that the dummy variables included in the model to capture the effects of the monetary stabilization and the anti-dumping measures did not present statiscally significant coefficients. It is possible that these effects have been capture by other variables in the model.
 
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dione.pdf (784.82 Kbytes)
Publishing Date
2005-05-19
 
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