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Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.104.2017.tde-11012017-085309
Document
Author
Full name
Aline Campos Reis de Souza
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Carlos, 2016
Supervisor
Committee
Cancho, Vicente Garibay (President)
Cabral, Celso Rômulo Barbosa
Davila, Victor Hugo Lachos
Title in Portuguese
Modelos de regressão linear heteroscedásticos com erros t-Student: uma abordagem bayesiana objetiva
Keywords in Portuguese
Distribuição a priori de Jeffreys
Erros t-Student
Inferência robusta
Modelos de regressão linear heteroscedásticos.
Abstract in Portuguese
Neste trabalho, apresentamos uma extensão da análise bayesiana objetiva feita em Fonseca et al. (2008), baseada nas distribuições a priori de Jeffreys para o modelo de regressão linear com erros t-Student, para os quais consideramos a suposição de heteoscedasticidade. Mostramos que a distribuição a posteriori dos parâmetros do modelo regressão gerada pela distribuição a priori é própria. Através de um estudo de simulação, avaliamos as propriedades frequentistas dos estimadores bayesianos e comparamos os resultados com outras distribuições a priori encontradas na literatura. Além disso, uma análise de diagnóstico baseada na medida de divergência Kullback-Leiber é desenvolvida com a finalidade de estudar a robustez das estimativas na presença de observações atípicas. Finalmente, um conjunto de dados reais é utilizado para o ajuste do modelo proposto.
Title in English
Heteroscedastics linear regression models with Student t erros: an objective bayesian analysis.
Keywords in English
Effreys prior
Heteroscedastic linear regression models.
Robust inference
Student t erros
Abstract in English
In this work , we present an extension of the objective bayesian analysis made in Fonseca et al. (2008), based on Jeffreys priors for linear regression models with Student t errors, for which we consider the heteroscedasticity assumption. We show that the posterior distribution generated by the proposed Jeffreys prior, is proper. Through simulation study , we analyzed the frequentist properties of the bayesian estimators obtained. Then we tested the robustness of the model through disturbances in the response variable by comparing its performance with those obtained under another prior distributions proposed in the literature. Finally, a real data set is used to analyze the performance of the proposed model . We detected possible in uential points through the Kullback -Leibler divergence measure, and used the selection model criterias EAIC, EBIC, DIC and LPML in order to compare the models.
 
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Publishing Date
2017-01-19
 
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