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Master's Dissertation
DOI
https://doi.org/10.11606/D.101.2015.tde-07122015-144757
Document
Author
Full name
Debora Ramires Pelisson
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2015
Supervisor
Committee
Lins, Maria Antonieta Del Tedesco (President)
Loureiro, Felipe Pereira
Prates, Daniela Magalhães
Title in Portuguese
Os programas de ajuste do FMI: condicionalidade, compliance e efeitos: uma análise dos programas aplicados à Indonésia, Coreia e Tailândia no contexto da crise financeira asiática
Keywords in Portuguese
Compliance
Condicionalidade
Desempenho econômico
FMI
Programas de ajuste
Abstract in Portuguese
Durante a crise asiática, ocorrida em 1997, Indonésia, Coreia e Tailândia enfrentaram uma intensa fuga de capitais que ocasionou sérios desequilíbrios em seus balanços de pagamentos. Diante das dificuldades, os países pediram socorro ao FMI e, em contrapartida aos empréstimos recebidos, se submeteram aos programas de ajuste da organização. O trabalho analisa os programas sob dois aspectos: o compliance das condicionalidades e o efeito sobre o desempenho econômico. O compliance é medido, por meio de um índice global, posteriormente separado em duas categorias: uma associada ao cumprimento de medidas macroeconômicas e outra vinculada às reformas estruturais. Os índices indicam o número de condições que foram cumpridas em relação ao número total de condições prescritas. Para os três países, os graus de compliance são altos. A partir dos resultados, é feita a verificação do efeito dos programas sobre as economias, mediante a análise da evolução de indicadores macroeconômicos selecionados. Conclui-se que o nível de compliance dos países está associado positivamente à recuperação da crise e à estabilidade econômica no longo-prazo, sendo mais forte a primeira relação.
Title in English
IMF programs: conditionality, compliance and effects: an analysis of the programs imposed to Indonesia, Korea and Thailand during the Asian financial crisis
Keywords in English
Compliance
Conditionality
Economic performance
IMF
Programs
Abstract in English
During the Asian crisis, occurred in 1997, Indonesia, Korea and Thailand faced a severe capital flight which led to serious imbalances in their balance of payments. Given the difficulties, the countries requested the IMF's support and, as conditional to the loans, they submitted themselves to the adjustment programs. This research analyzes two aspects of the programs: compliance of Fund's conditionalities and the effects on economic performance. Compliance is measured by a global index that was, after, separated into two categories: one associated with the compliance of macroeconomic policies and other related to structural reforms. The indices indicate the number of conditions that were met as a proportion of the total number of conditions that were prescribed. For all countries, the levels of compliance are high. Taking into account the compliance results, the effects of the programs on the economies are verified by an analysis of the progress of selected macroeconomic indicators. The study presents evidences that the countries' degrees of compliance are positively associated with the recovery from the crisis and the economic stability in the long run, being the first relationship stronger.
 
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Publishing Date
2015-12-08
 
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