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Master's Dissertation
DOI
10.11606/D.10.2011.tde-01062012-104639
Document
Author
Full name
Raul Ossada
E-mail
Institute/School/College
Knowledge Area
Date of Defense
Published
São Paulo, 2011
Supervisor
Committee
Amaku, Marcos (President)
Ferreira, Fernando
Pachi, Clarice Gameiro da Fonseca
Title in Portuguese
Modelagem da dinâmica de doenças infecciosas em redes de movimentação de animais
Keywords in Portuguese
Bovinos
Espalhamento de doenças
Modelagem epidemiológica
Movimentação de animais
Redes complexas
Abstract in Portuguese
A dinâmica de movimentação de animais em uma rede de propriedades rurais e o espalhamento de algumas doenças animais estão intrinsecamente relacionados. Assim, compreender a dinâmica do espalhamento de doenças infecciosas nestas redes é um instrumento importante no controle destas. Neste projeto, foram implementados algoritmos para gerar redes de movimentação de animais hipotéticas e reconstruiu-se a rede de movimentações de bovinos do Estado do Mato Grosso, 2007, Brasil. Foram feitas diversas simulações a fim de verificar o espalhamento de doenças agudas e crônicas nessas redes. Diferentes dinâmicas de espalhamento de doenças infecciosas foram observadas em redes com a mesma distribuição de graus e diferentes estruturas topológicas. Espera-se que os resultados das simulações matemáticas possam auxiliar nas atividades dos órgãos responsáveis pela vigilância epidemiológica e incentivar outros Estados a seguirem o exemplo do Estado do Mato Grosso, a construírem bancos de dados que possam ser analisados utilizando a metodologia de redes.
Title in English
Modeling the dynamics of infectious diseases in networks of animal movements
Keywords in English
Animal movements
Cattle
Complex networks
Disease spreading
Epidemic modeling
Abstract in English
The animals' movements in a farms network and the spread of some animal diseases are intrinsically related. Therefore, comprehending the dynamics of the spreading of infectious diseases in these networks is an important tool in controlling these diseases. In this project, we have implemented algorithms to generate hypothetical networks of animals' movements and rebuilt the network of bovine movements from the State of Mato Grosso, 2007, Brazil. We made several simulations in order to check the spreading of acute and chronic disease in these networks. Different dynamics of infectious disease spreading were observed in networks with the same degree distribution and different topological structure. We hope that the results of the mathematical simulations may assist in the activities of agencies responsible for disease surveillance and encourage other States to follow the example of the State of Mato Grosso, to build databases that can be analyzed using the methodology of networks.
 
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RAUL_OSSADA.pdf (3.41 Mbytes)
Publishing Date
2012-10-05
 
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